Global| Sep 15 2006CPI Rose An Expected 0.2%
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
In August, the consumer price index (CPI-U) rose an expected 0.2%, half the prior month's gain. Less food & energy, prices also rose an expected 0.2% for the second month and the gain equaled the average rate of increase during 2006. [...]
In August, the consumer price index (CPI-U) rose an expected 0.2%, half the prior month's gain. Less food & energy, prices also rose an expected 0.2% for the second month and the gain equaled the average rate of increase during 2006.
Increases in energy prices took a breather last month and rose just 0.2% after the 2.9% July spike. Gasoline prices ticked up just 0.2% (19.6% y/y) to an average $2.95 per gallon but have since declined in September. Last week's read was $2.62 and spot market trading this week suggests further declines in gasoline prices. Natural gas & electricity prices in August rose 0.2% (9.6% y/y) and the spot price for natural gas in September is down roughly 20% m/m.
Core goods prices rose 0.2% after a 0.1% July decline. On average core goods prices have risen 0.1% in 2006. Apparel prices surged 0.9% (0.3% y/y) after declining in July while furniture & bedding prices rose 0.2% (2.0% y/y). Appliance prices declined 0.1% (+0.9% y/y) and new & used motor vehicle prices were unchanged (0.6% y/y). Tobacco prices fell 0.1% (+2.9% y/y) and medical care commodity prices rose 0.3% (3.9% y/y).
Core services prices rose 0.2%, half the gains of the prior three months. Shelter prices rose a diminished 0.2% (3.8% y/y) as the rental equivalence measure of owners' primary residences rose 0.3% (3.9% y/y) and rents rose 0.4% (3.7% y/y) for the third straight month. Public transportation costs increased 0.3% (5.0% y/y) while education costs surged 0.7% (6.4% y/y). Medical care services prices doubled the prior month's rate of increase and rose 0.4% (4.4% y/y).
Food & beverage prices rose 0.3% as meat, fish & poultry prices recovered 1.0% (1.5% y/y). Fruit & vegetable prices also surged 1.0% (5.3% y/y) though dairy prices fell 0.8% (-1.6% y/y).
The chained CPI, which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases, rose 0.3% while less food & energy prices also rose 0.3%.
U.S. Wage and Price Dynamics: A Limited Information Approach from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
Inflation Targets and Inflation Expectations: Some Evidence from the Recent Oil Shocks from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
| Consumer Price Index | August | July | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.2% | 0.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.3% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2% | 0.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.2% | -0.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | -0.9% | -2.0% |
| Services less Energy | 0.2% | 0.4% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% |
| Energy | 0.3% | 2.9% | 15.0% | 16.9% | 10.8% | 12.2% |
| Food & Beverages | 0.3% | 0.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.1% |
| Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | 0.3% | 0.1% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.0% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.3% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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