Global| Oct 03 2008Consumer Spending and Purchase Plans in EMU
Summary
Retail sales in the Euro Area rose in August. The rise was small but it marks the second monthly rise in a row. Still the growth rates over 3 months, 6 months and 12 months are all hovering in the -2% range (saar) for the Area. The [...]
Retail sales in the Euro Area rose in August. The rise was small but it marks the second monthly rise in a row. Still the growth rates over 3 months, 6 months and 12 months are all hovering in the -2% range (saar) for the Area. The bottom of the table shows country by country results for Germany, Italy and the UK. The volatility in country level sales has been substantial. Germany saw sales volume spurt by 4.1% (ex-auto) in August. UK sales volume rose by 1.2%. Still over three months UK sales are off at an 8.1% annual rate. German sales over three months are up at a +2.4% pace. There is a lot of volatility in Europe. While this report seems to show some resiliency, consumer plans to buy still seem to be skewed sharply lower (see chart). Consumer sentiment remains weak and the industrial sectors across Europe are still weakening. The rise in retail sales in August seems to be more of an anomaly than proof of resiliency.
| Euro Area 15 Retail Sales Volume | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug-08 | Jul-08 | Jun-08 | 3-Mo | 6-MO | 12-Mo | |
| Euro Area 15 Total | 0.3% | 0.1% | -0.8% | -1.8% | -2.1% | -1.7% |
| Food | 0.7% | -0.5% | -0.7% | -2.0% | -2.6% | -2.1% |
| Nonfood | 0.1% | 0.5% | -0.9% | -1.0% | -1.5% | -1.4% |
| Textiles | #N/A | 2.4% | -2.7% | 24.9% | -0.2% | -0.1% |
| Books, news, etc | #N/A | 1.0% | -1.1% | -1.1% | -2.4% | -0.4% |
| Pharmaceutical | #N/A | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% |
| Other nonspecialized stores | #N/A | 1.1% | -1.8% | -0.7% | -2.0% | -1.1% |
| Mail Order | #N/A | 2.9% | -1.3% | 2.7% | -0.3% | 0.1% |
| Country detail;Volume | ||||||
| Germany: Vol ex Auto | 3.1% | -1.0% | -1.5% | 2.4% | -0.6% | 0.1% |
| Italy (Total; Value) | #N/A | 0.6% | -0.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| UK (EU):Vol | 1.2% | 0.9% | -4.2% | -8.1% | 1.9% | 3.4% |
| Shaded areas calculated on a one-month lag due to lagging data | ||||||
| The EA 15 countries are Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain. | ||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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