Global| Nov 04 2004Consumer Prices Quiescent in Chile, but Wholesale Prices Surge
Summary
Consumer inflation in Chile remains quite mild. Through October, for which data were published this morning, the total CPI was up just 1.9% from October 2003, and the rate excluding food and energy was a mere 0.9%. These rates are [...]
Consumer inflation in Chile remains quite mild. Through October, for which data were published this morning, the total CPI was up just 1.9% from October 2003, and the rate excluding food and energy was a mere 0.9%. These rates are actually "high" compared with earlier this year and late in 2003, when year-on-year comparisons showed modest deflation. Food, clothing and home furnishings all show declining prices, though the pace of decline has recently moderated. By inference, energy seems to be the main source of price increase. Housing and transportation costs are erratic, so a trend is hard to characterize.
At the same time, wholesale prices in Chile have been very strong, with October's level nearly 9% above a year ago. Chile's industry is dominated by commodity production, particularly copper, and copper prices have exploded. On London metals markets, the spot price averaged $3,010.96/metric ton in October, up a whopping 57% from October 2003. This is apparently demand-driven. It is a accompanied in Chile by rising output; mining production overall was 12.7% higher in the third quarter than a year ago and exports of copper, valued in US$, were up 104% in the second quarter and 88% in the third from the year- earlier amounts.
| % Changes | Oct 2004 | Sep 2004 | Aug 2004 | Year/Year | December/December|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | |||||
| CPI (SA) | 0.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.6 |
| CPI ex Food & Energy (SA) | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 3.1 |
| WPI (SA) | 2.4 | -2.3 | 0.5 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 7.8 |
| Copper* | 3.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 56.9 | 14.1 | -1.3 | -12.9 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
