Global| Jan 29 2008Consumer Confidence Stayed Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board reported today that consumer confidence gave back about all of its December gain. The level fell 3.0% in January to a reading of 87.9. The decline was slightly less than had been expected by economists but it was [...]
The Conference Board reported today that consumer confidence gave back about all of its December gain. The level fell 3.0% in January to a reading of 87.9. The decline was slightly less than had been expected by economists but it was to a point near the low of last year.
A decline in the expectations component accounted for all of last month's decline with an 8.2% m/m drop. Expectations for employment (more jobs) and for business conditions deteriorated.
The percentage of respondents planning to buy an existing home
fell but those planning to buy a new home rose to the highest in four
months. Those planning to buy a major appliance rose to the highest
level since August.
Respondents planning to buy an automobile within the next six months rose sharply
The present conditions index rose 2.1% and that made up just a small piece of the declines during the last nine months of 2007. Just 20.7% of respondents saw business conditions as good, near the least since 2004, but a slightly greater 23.9% saw jobs as plentiful.
The expected inflation rate in twelve months fell m/m to 5.3% but that still was up from the 5.1% expected rate during 2006 and 2007.
| Conference
Board (SA, 1985=100) |
January | December | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 87.9 | 90.6 | -20.2% | 103.4 | 105.9 | 100.3 |
| Present Conditions | 115.3 | 112.9 | -13.9% | 128.8 | 130.2 | 116.1 |
| Expectations | 69.6 | 75.8 | -26.3% | 86.4 | 89.7 | 89.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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