Global| Dec 28 2005Consumer Confidence Buoyed By More Jobs & Lower Gas Prices
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The December index of Consumer Confidence surged 5.4% to 103.6 on top of a 15.4% recovery the prior month, reported the conference Board. The index stood at the highest level since August and exceeded Consensus expectations for a [...]
The December index of Consumer Confidence surged 5.4% to 103.6 on top of a 15.4% recovery the prior month, reported the conference Board. The index stood at the highest level since August and exceeded Consensus expectations for a lesser gain to 102.3. The gain lagged a bit the 12.1% m/m jump in Consumer sentiment reported last week by the University of Michigan.
During the last twenty years there has been a 52% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.
The index of consumers' expectations added 3.6% (-9.0% y/y) to the 26.1% m/m spike during November. Optimism rose that more jobs would be created and that the inflation rate during the during the next year would ease.
Consumers' assessment of the present situation rose 7.3% (14.9% y/y) on top of a 5.0% increase during November. Jobs were viewed as plentiful by 23.3% of respondents, the highest since August and fewer (22.2%) thought jobs were hard to get, the lowest since 2002.
The Conference Board’s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
| Conference Board | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence | 103.6 | 98.3 | 0.9% | 100.3 | 96.1 | 79.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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