Global| Feb 07 2005Commodity Price Trends Mixed
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Commodity prices as measured by the JoC-ECRI (Journal of Commerce-Economic Cycle Research Institute) index have fallen in recent weeks despite the back up in petroleum prices. Recent trends amongst the components turned mixed versus [...]
Commodity prices as measured by the JoC-ECRI (Journal of Commerce-Economic Cycle Research Institute) index have fallen in recent weeks despite the back up in petroleum prices. Recent trends amongst the components turned mixed versus last year when they were mostly positive.
During the last ten years there has been a 46% correlation between the JoC-ECRI commodity price index and the six month change in factory sector industrial production.
Despite up ticks during the last two weeks, metals prices are down 3.8% from the high in November. Steel scrap prices have fallen 19.6% from those highs but copper scrap prices have continued trending higher (27.3% y/y). Aluminum prices have backpedaled following a spike late last year (12.4% y/y).
Lumber prices have recovered some of their decline last fall when prices dropped one quarter to one third, but prices remain well off last year's highs. Textile prices also have risen moderately following the decline early in 2004 that pulled prices down 12%.
Petroleum prices fell slightly last week following a recovery in January when prices rose 11%.
The KR-CRB (Knight Ridder-Commodity Research Bureau) commodity price index differs from the JoC-ECRI Index. Roughly half of the index reflects agricultural prices. The index has moved lower since last year as a result of lower livestock prices (-4.3% y/y) and lower foodstuff prices (-8.5% y/y).
| JoC-ECRI Industrial Price Index | 02/04/05 | 12/31/04 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Items | 110.90 | 111.60 | 1.7% | 112.78 | 91.97 | 79.53 |
| Textiles | 64.90 | 64.40 | -5.4% | 65.83 | 65.09 | 59.73 |
| Metals | 122.70 | 124.60 | 12.5% | 118.15 | 84.57 | 75.14 |
| Miscellaneous | 99.30 | 103.90 | -15.8% | 114.03 | 102.89 | 85.81 |
| Petroleum | 239.20 | 216.50 | 45.3% | 207.13 | 135.26 | 110.06 |
| KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index | 02/01/05 | 12/28/04 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
| All Commodities | 289.14 | 293.42 | -0.9% | 293.42 | 282.59 | 244.31 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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