Global| Dec 01 2009Challenger Layoffs Move To Lowest Since Late-2007
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The outplacement firm of Challenger, Grey & Christmas indicated that job cut announcements fell last month to 50,349, compared to a high of 241,748 in January of this year. The latest reading was the least number of layoffs since [...]
The
outplacement firm of Challenger, Grey & Christmas indicated
that job cut announcements fell last month to 50,349, compared to a
high of 241,748 in January of this year. The latest reading was the
least number of layoffs since December 2007. Layoffs have moderated
sharply in the apparel, consumer goods, financial, retail, services and
transportation industries. They rose sharply in the health care
industry and moderately in the insurance industry.
During the last ten years there has been a 67% (inverse) correlation between the three- month moving average of announced job cuts and the three-month change payroll employment. Job cut announcements differ from layoffs. Many are achieved through attrition, early retirement or just never occur.
These figures are gross layoffs
and do not reflect new hires as do the monthly figures on payroll
employment. At their 2007 low, the latest Challenger figures were then
accompanied by monthly gains in nonfarm payrolls of roughly 160,000.
Challenger also provides data on firms' hiring plans. During November plans fell back to the recession lows after having increased over the last two months. The net of hires less layoffs nevertheless was near its least 2007.
The Challenger figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
The Recession in Perspective from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis can be found here.
| Challenger, Gray & Christmas | November | October | September | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Announced Job Cuts | 50,349 | 55,679 | 66,404 | -72.3% | 1,223,993 | 768,264 | 839,822 |
| Announced Hiring Plans | 10,076 | 57,520 | 25,047 | -9.7 | 118,600 | 365,583 | 273,887 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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