Global| Jan 30 2008Case-Shiller Home Price Index Lowest Since 2005
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 10 home price index, U.S. home prices fell another 2.2% m/m in November to the lowest level since April 2005. Home prices have fallen in every month since June of 2006 and the total decline [...]
According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 10 home price index, U.S. home prices fell another 2.2% m/m in November to the lowest level since April 2005. Home prices have fallen in every month since June of 2006 and the total decline over that period amounts to 9.4%. The November decline pulled the y/y comparison to a negative 8.4%.
The index of 10 U.S. cities and their surrounding areas is not adjusted for the quality or the size of the home. The home price index from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) does make these adjustments. This series indicates that through the third quarter home prices still were rising, but at a reduced 1.8% y/y rate.
The composite index of homes in 20 metropolitan areas fell 2.1% (-7.7% y/y) last month.
Home prices in San Diego California continued quite weak and
registered a 13.4% y/y decline and they have fallen 16.3% from the late
2005 peak. Prices in Miami Florida also are down sharply, by 15.1% y/y.
Home prices in Las Vegas Nevada registered a 13.2% y/y decline and in
Los Angeles prices fell 11.9% y/y.
Relatively moderate declines were registered in New York (-4.8% y/y), Chicago (-3.39% y/y) and Denver (-3.1%).
An overview of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price series can be found here.
The S&P/Case-Shiller home price series can be found in Haver's REGIONAL database.
Masters of Illusion from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis explores why home prices soar in both high and low inflation eras? It is available here.
| S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (NSA, Jan 00 = 100) | November | October | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ten City Composite Index | 205.09 | 209.75 | -8.4% | 224.56 | 209.16 | 178.90 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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