Global| Apr 14 2003Business Inventories Accumulate
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories rose twice Consensus expectations for a 0.3% gain. The 0.6% rise was the tenth consecutive monthly increase and that followed decumulation which extended through 2001 and into last year. Retail inventories [...]
Total business inventories rose twice Consensus expectations for a 0.3% gain. The 0.6% rise was the tenth consecutive monthly increase and that followed decumulation which extended through 2001 and into last year.
Retail inventories rose again, last month by 0.9%, and continued a trend toward accumulation that began in January 2002. Rising inventories of motor vehicles and parts have led that trend, up 1.8% in February and 18.4% y/y.
Nonauto retail inventories rose a solid 0.5% following slight decumulation in January. Inventories at apparel stores added 0.1% (6.0% y/y) to sharp gains in the prior three months. Inventories at general merchandise stores fell 0.3% (2.2% y/y) and January's rise was revised to a decline. Inventories of furniture, home furnishings and electronics fell for the second consecutive month (5.3% y/y) and are down slightly in the last four months.
Overall business sales fell 1.0% (4.1% y/y) following a sharp 1.3% gain in January. Both retail and manufacturers sales fell 1.5% in February.
The inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.38, the highest level since March 2002.
| Business Inventories | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.6% | 0.3% | 3.2% | 2.1% | -6.2% | 5.5% |
| Retail | 0.9% | 0.6% | 7.9% | 7.8% | -5.0% | 6.1% |
| Retail excl. Autos | 0.5% | -0.0% | 3.4% | 3.1% | -2.1% | 4.1% |
| Wholesale | 0.3% | -0.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% | -4.9% | 6.1% |
| Manufacturing | 0.4% | 0.1% | -0.3% | -1.9% | -8.0% | 4.5% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
