Global| May 19 2008BOF Industry Indicator Continues to Drop
Summary
The Bank of France indicator for industry stands near the bottom quartile of its two-year range and is beginning to break more decidedly lower (see chart). The production index is at a 2-Yr low. Overall order books are the weakest [...]
The Bank of France indicator for industry stands near the bottom quartile of its two-year range and is beginning to break more decidedly lower (see chart). The production index is at a 2-Yr low. Overall order books are the weakest they have been in two years. Job market readings for current and expected conditions are near mid-range.
For French production the weakest sector is agriculture and food. Production in the consumer goods sector is in the bottom quartile of its range. Capital goods is an enduring exception with production near the top third of its range. The capital goods sector continues to the firmest sector among most e-Zone countries.
The performance of orders by sector is approximately the same as it is for production with food very weak. The consumer sector also is weak and stands very low in its two year range; capital goods orders again are in the top third of their range.
On balance the Bank of France Survey agrees with the notion that the e-Zone is slowing. Food and consumer goods are the weakest sectors with capital goods being dragged lower, but still showing relatively firm readings for now.
| Bank of France Monthly INDUSTRY Survey: SUMMARY | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 MO | Since Jan-87 | 2Yr Percentile | ||||
| Apr-08 | Mar-08 | Feb-08 | AVERAGE | Average | rank/range | |
| Production-latest month | ||||||
| Total Industry | 3.36 | 0.35 | 3.71 | 6 | 7 | 26.2% |
| Production Outlook | ||||||
| Total Industry | 5.45 | 13.2 | 12.26 | 16 | 15 | 0.0% |
| Demand | ||||||
| Overall order books | 17.64 | 18.24 | 22.11 | 25 | 5 | 0.0% |
| Foreign Orders | 9.7 | 2.39 | 9.81 | 10 | 8 | 30.6% |
| New Orders | ||||||
| Total Industry | 8.95 | 1.36 | 8.3 | 9 | 9 | 37.1% |
| Stocks: Finished Goods | ||||||
| Total Industry | 0.63 | 0.62 | -3.21 | -2 | -2 | 93.2% |
| Capacity Utilization | 83.15 | 83.12 | 83.33 | 83 | 83 | 48.2% |
| Hiring | ||||||
| Latest Month | -0.4 | -2.68 | 0.14 | 0 | -1 | 51.6% |
| Outlook | -2.81 | -3.81 | -0.49 | -2 | -3 | 53.7% |
| Industry Sentiment Index | 100.81 | 104.29 | 105.99 | 106 | 107 | 0.0% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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