Global| Jan 30 2008ADP Report: Private Payroll Growth Much Improved
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The ADP National Employment Report, reported by the payroll processor, indicated that private nonfarm payroll growth improved sharply to 130,000 in January from a revised 37,000 worker advance in December. The U.S. Bureau of Labor [...]
The ADP National Employment Report, reported by the payroll processor, indicated that private nonfarm payroll growth improved sharply to 130,000 in January from a revised 37,000 worker advance in December.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employment figure for January will be published this coming Friday.Last month, the 37,000 gain ADP's measure of private nonfarm payrolls was followed by a decline of 13,000 in the BLS measure of private nonfarm payrolls.
According to ADP and Macro Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP estimate and that in the BLS data is 0.90
The ADP sub-index for large payrolls nudged up 8,000 after a 35,000 worker collapse during December
Medium sized payrolls showed great improvement by 52,000 after
a 5,000 December increase.
Growth in small payrolls of 70,000 was near the very recent rate but there has been a halving of the annual growth rate over the last three years.
Employment in the goods producing industries continued to decline (-1.7% y/y) while services rose (1.5% y/y).
ADP compiled the estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.
The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in
Haver's USECON database; historical data
go back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private
sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector, which rose an
average 11,083 during the last twelve months.
The full ADP National Employment Report can be found here, and the ADP methodology is explained here.
| LAXEPA@USECON | January | December | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m Chg.) | 130,000 | 37,000 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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