Global| Dec 20 20023Q GDP Growth Revised Little
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Real GDP last quarter was little revised, as expected. Component revisions also were largely technical. Year to date growth in real GDP has been 3.4% (AR). The previously reported strong growth in corporate profits after tax was [...]
Real GDP last quarter was little revised, as expected. Component revisions also were largely technical. Year to date growth in real GDP has been 3.4% (AR).
The previously reported strong growth in corporate profits after tax was revised up slightly to 8.8% (-0.9% y/y). Profits with IVA & CCA were also little revised and fell 6.9% (+12.2% y/y). Tax law changes greatly boosted the Capital Consumption Adjustment (depreciation) as of 4Q01. The CCA has fallen sharply since the 4Q peak.
The effect from inventory accumulation was raised slightly.
Domestic final demand growth was revised slightly lower led by a downward revision to residential investment, revised to show a 1.0% increase. Personal consumption growth was little revised at 4.2%.
Capital spending declined 0.8%. Business spending on structures fell 21.3%. Spending on equipment rose 6.7% as a result of strength in spending on information processing equipment & software, up 13.7%.
The trade sector's contribution to growth was little revised near zero as exports grew 4.7% (2.8% y/y). Imports grew 3.3% (6.7% y/y).
Estimated inflation was unchanged.
| Chained '96 $, % AR | 3Q'02 (Final) | 3Q'02 (Prelim.) | 2Q'02 (Final) | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 4.0% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 0.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% |
| Inventory Effect | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | -1.2% | 0.1% | -0.2% |
| Final Sales | 3.4% | 3.5% | -0.1% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% |
| Trade Effect | -0.0% | 0.0% | -1.4% | -0.5% | -0.1% | -0.6% | -0.9% |
| Domestic Final Demand | 3.3% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% |
| Chained GDP Price Deflator | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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