Federal Reserve policymakers have clearly indicated their intentions to raise official rates by 25 basis points at the September 25-26 Federal Open Market Committee Meeting. Yet, one of the more contentious issues that may be [...]
Global| Sep 11 2018Fed Policy: In Search of Rate Neutrality
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Global| Sep 04 2018Are Inflation Expectations Moveable?
Policymakers are increasingly relying on measures of inflation expectations in order to monitor potential changes in the inflation outlook. Yet, with general inflation steady and inflation expectations often no more than an [...]
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Global| Aug 27 2018State Coincident Indexes: The Sum of the Parts Greater than the Whole?
Last Wednesday the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank issued its estimates of state coincident activity for July. All 50 states report increases over the last 12 months; only West Virginia and Alaska showed gains under 1 percent. As [...]
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Global| Aug 20 2018Odd Couple: "A Genuine Economic Boom" & Bigger Budget Deficits
At a cabinet meeting last week, White House economic advisor Mr. Larry Kudlow described the economy's performance in 2018 as a "genuine economic boom." Yet, Mr. Kudlow failed to mention that this "economic boom" is being accompanied [...]
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Global| Aug 17 2018State Labor Markets in July
July saw job gains in 42 states, though only 6 of those increases were deemed statistically significant by BLS, led by California’s 46,700 (0.3 percent) gain (Nevada had the largest percentage increase—0.7). It’s often the case that a [...]
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Global| Aug 16 2018Foreclosures Continue to Ebb
The Mortgage Bankers' Association's latest numbers on home mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures show that problems with home loans continue to fade. At the end of the second quarter, 1.05 percent of all mortgages on 1 to 4-unit [...]
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Global| Aug 06 2018Why Has Core Consumer Inflation Stayed Flat?
One of the great economic mysteries of the past 20 years has been the lack of cyclical pressure in core consumer price inflation. The answers to this mystery are far from being merely academic since the stance of monetary policy is [...]
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Global| Jul 30 2018Fed Chairman Powell's First Test--Fiscal Stimulus Boosts Q2 Nominal GDP to Its Fastest Growth Rate Since 2006
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's first test of deciding over the proper stance and course of monetary policy has arrived. Back in February when Mr. Powell testified before Congress he said one of the more important factors [...]
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