Viewpoints

The V-shaped pattern in equity prices over the past several months shows how quickly and powerfully monetary policy decisions and pronouncements nowadays influence investor expectations and decisions. The dynamic feedback loop exposes [...]

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity show more idiosyncratic than regional variation; in other words, there isn't a simple picture that the West is outstripping the East. Over the 12 months [...]

For a second straight month, state payrolls were little-changed in March. Washington’s robust increase of 27,900 (0.8 percent) was the statistically significant change. However, most states reported gains in jobs. California and Texas [...]

State incomes grew strongly in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to recently released BEA data. South Dakota, Iowa, and Nebraska, reported double-digit annualized growth rates. New York had the lowest rate of growth, but even [...]

The Fed has a problem; politics has invaded its policy turf. Criticism by President Trump over the Federal Reserve decisions to hike official rates has now escalated to an even higher level as the Administration's top economic advisor [...]

Inflation has often been involved in political controversy, but today the pendulum has swung from politicians to monetary policymakers. Politicians used the controversy over high inflation to force change in its measurement. Monetary [...]

When I last communicated with you regarding matters related to the U.S. economy, on September 4, 2018 (see "The Flattening Yield Curve – Is It Different this Time?"), the spread or difference between the yield on the Treasury 10-year [...]

State payrolls were little-changed in February. Only two states (Florida and Idaho) reported statistically significant moves from January; both were increases. Across the other 49 jurisdictions (including DC) there were comparable [...]