Viewpoints: 2019

Most states saw little or no change in the number of jobs in July. Five states report statistically significant gains. Texas’s 35,200 was the largest absolute increase; Utah’s 0.7% gain was the largest percentage rise. Florida was the [...]

Recessions are far from being alike and their symptoms and causes differ over time. Despite its many shapes and sizes the historical regularity that an inverted Treasury yield curve has coincided with recession has raised concern now [...]

The Trump Administration, with support and consent from Congress, has cobbled together a lopsided federal budget, loaded with upfront stimulus, financed with huge borrowings, only to be reversed in future years with doubtful spending [...]

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank’s estimates of state coincident activity for June continue to show that most states are experiencing reasonably healthy growth. As was the case for May’s first set of numbers, the June results [...]

The happy prophecy of endless growth in the economy generating a continuous flow of strong corporate earnings just ran into trouble—the "truth" on profits. According to GDP data released today Q2 corporate earning posted their largest [...]

Real GDP growth by state continued to be centered in the West in 2019:Q1, although West Virginia's pace, 5.2% at an annual rate, was the fastest in the nation. Eight of the nine other states in the top ten were in the West, led by [...]

The Phillips curve has been dormant for over two decades, as the dynamic between tight labor markets and inflation has virtually disappeared. Yet, the demise of the Phillips curve should not be used as a reason for policymakers to [...]

The June job numbers from the states, like the national figures, showed increases, but except in a few instances these were not statistically significant. Only 4 states reported statistically significant gains—but these included [...]