Viewpoints: April 2020

The great divide between finance and the economy rolls on. In the past 6 weeks, jobless claims have increased by 30 million, while the S&P 500 index has increased by more than 30%. The last decade saw the greatest divide ever between [...]

Even though the media has put a spotlight on the rising number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States, that is the wrong statistic to look at when trying to assess the risk of spread. Rather than the number of confirmed [...]

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank has issued estimates of state coincident indexes for March, and the results are truly ugly. The Bank's release shows a map illustrating three-month changes, and it is largely a frightening field [...]

The strong rebound in equity prices since mid-March suggests investors are banking on a fast rebound in the economy once government eases the restrictions on work-life, travel and social and recreational gatherings. Reopening regions [...]

The March state data provide first firm data on the regional impact of the pandemic. 31 states saw statistically significant drops in their job counts; Tennessee—a state that was quite late to impost shut-downs—was the only state to [...]

As difficult it was to decide to shut down large segments of the economy in order to contain coronavirus it will be even trickier to decide when to end the lockdown. News that the coronavirus curve (i.e., the number of cases) may be [...]

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank has issued estimates of state coincident indexes for February. This is essentially the last comprehensive snapshot of the distribution of activity prior to the impact of the pandemic. A look at [...]

The March employment report shows massive disruption in the labor market triggered by the coronavirus. And as awful as the payroll job loss numbers appear they pale in comparison to the record loss in household employment and surge in [...]