Viewpoints: March 2019

Inflation has often been involved in political controversy, but today the pendulum has swung from politicians to monetary policymakers. Politicians used the controversy over high inflation to force change in its measurement. Monetary [...]

When I last communicated with you regarding matters related to the U.S. economy, on September 4, 2018 (see "The Flattening Yield Curve – Is It Different this Time?"), the spread or difference between the yield on the Treasury 10-year [...]

State payrolls were little-changed in February. Only two states (Florida and Idaho) reported statistically significant moves from January; both were increases. Across the other 49 jurisdictions (including DC) there were comparable [...]

The US equity market is on another streak, posting a double-digit gain since the start of the year and extending a bull run that has lasted 10 years. In terms of pure numbers, equities occupy a position far above any other asset, and [...]

Mirroring with national figures, yesterday's BLS release showed that state payrolls were generally strong in January. Thirteen states (as these things go, a large fraction) reported statistically significant increases in jobs. In [...]

Payroll employment increased by only 20,000 in February, following a 311,000 gain in January. Many analysts quickly dismissed the small gain in payrolls, arguing that it was inconsistent with other labor market indicators and some [...]

Payroll employment increased by only 20,000 in February, following a 311,000 gain in January. Many analysts quickly dismissed the small gain in payrolls, arguing that it was inconsistent with other labor market indicators and some [...]

In 2018, the US merchandise trade deficit hit a record $891.3 billion. Many analysts, academics and even a former policy advisor downplayed the record trade deficit, arguing that "a higher trade deficit means a stronger economy"; and, [...]