- -1.0% m/m (-19.9% y/y) in July vs. -8.9% m/m (-20.2% y/y) in June; the decline eases somewhat, reflecting the recent retreat in mortgage rates.
- July PHSI at 89.8, lowest since April 2020.
- Sales fall m/m in Northeast, Midwest and South, but sales in the West post the first m/m gain since January.
- Sales continue to drop y/y by double digits in all the major regions.
Introducing
Winnie Tapasanun
in:Our Authors
Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
Publications by Winnie Tapasanun
USA| Aug 16 2022U.S. Housing Starts Drop to 1.446 Mil. in July
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Starts level is lowest since February 2021.
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Single-family starts at 916,000, lowest since June 2020.
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Starts in the Northeast at a 14-year high; starts in the other regions down.
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Building permits at 1.674 mil., lowest since September 2021.
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Single-family & multi-family starts and single-family permits decrease, but multi-family permits rise for the second straight month.
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Business activity falls in New York State, w/ the General Business Conditions Index down 42.4 pts. to -31.3.
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Widespread declines: new orders, shipments, unfilled orders, inventories, and employment.
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Inflation pressures ease somewhat, w/ prices paid down 8.8 pts. to 55.5.
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Following two straight m/m drops, the Future Business Conditions Index improves 8.3 pts. to a still-low 2.1.
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Import prices drop 1.4% w/ imported fuel prices down 7.5%.
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Excluding fuels, import prices decline 0.5%, down for the third straight month.
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Export prices fall 3.3% w/ ag export prices down 3.0% and nonag export prices down 3.3%.
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Year-over-year import and export price growth rates decelerate in July vs. June; import prices 8.8% vs. 10.7% and export prices 13.1% vs. 18.1%, their lowest since March 2021.
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USA| Aug 05 2022U.S. Consumer Credit Growth Surges in June
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Largest consumer credit growth in three months.
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Revolving credit usage strengthens.
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Record increase in nonrevolving credit balances.
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USA| Aug 03 2022U.S. Factory Orders Rise Stronger Than Expected in June
- New orders +2.0% in June vs. +1.8% in May, up for the ninth straight month; May orders revised up.
- Shipments gain 1.1% with rises of 2.0% in nondurable goods and 0.3% in durable goods.
- Inventories increase at a slower pace while unfilled orders rise at a faster pace.
USA| Aug 01 2022U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Falls in June After Eight Straight M/M Gains
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Total construction -1.1% m/m (+8.3% y/y); May revised up but April revised down.
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Residential private construction drops 1.6% m/m, first decline since May '20, led by monthly decreases of 3.1% in single-family building and 0.3% in home improvement building.
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Nonresidential private construction declines 0.5% m/m, down for the fourth straight month.
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Public sector construction falls 0.5% m/m, down for the second consecutive month following four successive m/m rises, led by a 0.5% decline in nonresidential public construction.
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- Down 3.9 pts. to 52.1 in July, lowest since Aug. '20; drops in index components except employment.
- Production, at 48.2, posts its first contraction in two years.
- New orders contract for the second consecutive month following 23 straight expansions.
- Employment expands for the second straight month following six successive contractions.
- Inflation pressures persist w/ prices paid at an elevated-level 81.9.
• July index rebounds 1 pt. to 13, led by shipments, production, and new orders; employment at its lowest level since Jan. '21, albeit at a positive level.
• Current and expected conditions rise for the first time since March.
• Inflation pressures and price expectations ease somewhat, to their lowest levels in over a year.
• -8.6% m/m (-20.0% y/y) in June due to rising mortgage rates and housing prices impacting potential buyers.
• June PHSI at 91.0, lowest since April 2020.
• Sales fall m/m and y/y in all the major regions w/ the deepest in the West (-15.9% m/m; -30.9% y/y).
• Down 2.7 pts. to 95.7; lower than expected; third consecutive m/m decline.
• Present Situation Index at 141.3, lowest since Apr. '21, signaling economic growth has slowed in Q3 '22.
• Expectations Index at 65.3, lowest since Mar. '13, increasing recession risks.
• Present labor market less optimistic; employment expectations down slightly.
• Inflation expectations only down marginally; inflation and additional Fed rate increases possibly suppress consumer spending and economic growth in the near term.
USA| Jul 21 2022Philly Fed Future General Activity Index Plunges to the Lowest Reading since December 1979
• Business activity falls for four straight months, w/ the current general activity index down 9.0 pts. to -12.3, the second consecutive negative reading.
• Extensive declines in sub-indexes except shipments rising 4.0 pts. to 14.8.
• Inflation indicators, while down modestly, still indicate widespread price increases.
• Future optimism wanes w/ the future general activity index down 11.8 pts. to -18.6, the lowest reading since December 1979.
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