- IP -0.2% in August, +0.5% in July (revised down from +0.6%), 0.0% in June.
- Mfg. IP (only +0.1% in Aug.; downwardly revised for July and June) increases for the second consecutive month after two straight m/m drops, w/ durable goods virtually unchanged and nondurable goods up 0.2%.
- Motor vehicle output decreases 1.4%, the third m/m drop in four months, after a downwardly revised 3.2% July increase.
- Utilities output falls for the second successive month while mining activity holds steady.
- Consumer goods output declines for the third time in four months while business equipment rises for the second consecutive month.
- Capacity utilization eases 0.2%-pt. to 80.0%; mfg. capacity utilization unchanged at 79.6%.
Introducing
Winnie Tapasanun
in:Our Authors
Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
Publications by Winnie Tapasanun
USA| Sep 15 2022U.S. Industrial Production Unexpectedly Declines in August
- Affordability improves in July w/ the index up 3.1% to 102.2.
- Lower home prices & interest rates improve affordability.
- Median sales price of a home drops 2.4% to a three-month-low $410,600 from June's record high; mortgage payments fall from June's record high.
- Median family income declines for the first time since Sept. following nine straight m/m rises.
- New orders -1.0% in July following nine straight m/m rises; June revised down to +1.8%.
- Shipments decline 0.9%, led by a 1.9% drop in nondurable goods.
- Unfilled orders rise 0.7%, easing from June's 0.8%, while inventories increase a marginal 0.1%.
- Total July construction -0.4% m/m (+8.5% y/y); June and May revised up.
- Residential private construction drops 1.5% m/m (+14.1% y/y), the largest monthly decline since April '20, led by m/m drops of 4.0% in single-family building and 0.6% in multi-family building.
- Nonresidential private construction increases 0.4% m/m (3.1% y/y), up for the third straight month.
- Public sector construction rises 1.5% m/m (3.3% y/y), up for the sixth time in seven months, led by a 1.5% gain (3.3% y/y) in nonresidential public construction.
- Up 7.9 pts. to higher-than-expected 103.2 in August; the first m/m rise following three straight m/m drops.
- Present Situation Index at 145.4, the first m/m gain since March.
- Expectations Index at 75.1, the first m/m rise to the highest level since April, but still below 80, suggesting continued recession risks.
- Consumers generally less optimistic about the present labor market but more optimistic about the short-term labor market outlook.
- Inflation expectations, while continuing their retreat, remain elevated.
USA| Aug 29 2022Texas Manufacturing Activity and Expectations Indexes Post Their Fourth Straight Negative Readings in August
- General business activity rebounds to -12.9 in August from -22.6 in July; future general business activity improves to -8.8 from July's -17.7.
- Company outlook negative for the sixth straight month; new orders growth negative for the fourth consecutive month and new orders negative for the third successive month.
- Production falls for the seventh time in nine months to lowest since May '20; employment eases but still above its series average.
- Price pressures moderate w/ prices received lowest since February '21 and prices paid lowest since October '20.
- $89.1 billion deficit in July, lowest since October 2021.
- Exports decline 0.2% m/m following five straight monthly increases.
- Imports drop for the fourth consecutive month.
- August index drops 10 pt. to 3, lowest since July '20, w/ shipments, production, and new orders in negative territory.
- Employment at its lowest level since December '20, albeit at a positive level.
- Inflation pressures ease w/ price indexes at their lowest levels in over a year.
- Expectations for future activity, while down, remain at a positive level.
- -1.0% m/m (-19.9% y/y) in July vs. -8.9% m/m (-20.2% y/y) in June; the decline eases somewhat, reflecting the recent retreat in mortgage rates.
- July PHSI at 89.8, lowest since April 2020.
- Sales fall m/m in Northeast, Midwest and South, but sales in the West post the first m/m gain since January.
- Sales continue to drop y/y by double digits in all the major regions.
USA| Aug 16 2022U.S. Housing Starts Drop to 1.446 Mil. in July
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Starts level is lowest since February 2021.
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Single-family starts at 916,000, lowest since June 2020.
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Starts in the Northeast at a 14-year high; starts in the other regions down.
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Building permits at 1.674 mil., lowest since September 2021.
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Single-family & multi-family starts and single-family permits decrease, but multi-family permits rise for the second straight month.
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Business activity falls in New York State, w/ the General Business Conditions Index down 42.4 pts. to -31.3.
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Widespread declines: new orders, shipments, unfilled orders, inventories, and employment.
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Inflation pressures ease somewhat, w/ prices paid down 8.8 pts. to 55.5.
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Following two straight m/m drops, the Future Business Conditions Index improves 8.3 pts. to a still-low 2.1.
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Import prices drop 1.4% w/ imported fuel prices down 7.5%.
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Excluding fuels, import prices decline 0.5%, down for the third straight month.
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Export prices fall 3.3% w/ ag export prices down 3.0% and nonag export prices down 3.3%.
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Year-over-year import and export price growth rates decelerate in July vs. June; import prices 8.8% vs. 10.7% and export prices 13.1% vs. 18.1%, their lowest since March 2021.
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