The National Activity Index (CFNAI) compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago recovered to 0.39 last month from a downwardly revised 0.05 in November.A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| Jan 27 2005Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index Recovered
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 27 2005
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Up As Expected
Durable goods orders in December rose 0.6%, right on the Consensus expectation. The advance report of a November surge in orders was little revised. For 2004, the 10.7% gain in orders was the strongest in ten years and led to a 7.1% [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 27 2005
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Up Slightly
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose a slight 7,000 to 325,000 last week. The increase followed the 49,000 plunge the week prior which was slightly greater than reported initially. Consensus expectations had been for a [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 27 2005
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Up Slightly
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose a slight 7,000 to 325,000 last week. The increase followed the 49,000 plunge the week prior which was slightly greater than reported initially. Consensus expectations had been for a [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 26 2005
Mortgage Applications Down
Mortgage applications fell 3.6% last week pulling the average level in January 4.3% below the December average according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Survey. Purchase applications fell 2.0% w/w. The second decline in [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 25 2005
CBO Updates US Budget Estimates
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that if current laws and policies remained the same, the US federal government would run budget deficits of $368B this year and $295B in 2006. These compare with estimates of $348B and [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 25 2005
CBO Updates US Budget Estimates
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that if current laws and policies remained the same, the US federal government would run budget deficits of $368B this year and $295B in 2006. These compare with estimates of $348B and [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 25 2005
U.S. Existing Home Sales Slip From Record Pace
Sales of existing single family homes slipped 3.3% from the record high in November. At 6.69M, the December tally completed a year where sales rose 8.5% versus 2003 which had risen 9.0%. Consensus expectations had been for December [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 25 2005
Consumer Confidence Improved Further
The Conference Boards Index of Consumer Confidence ticked slightly higher in January to 103.4 and added to the upwardly revised 10.1 point surge in December. Consensus expectations had been for a slight backpedaling to 101.3. The [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 25 2005
Chain Store Sales Ticked Up
Chain store sales recovered 0.1% of the prior two weeks' declines which had lowered sales 1.5% from the yearend high, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. The average of sales in January are [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 25 2005
Chain Store Sales Ticked Up
Chain store sales recovered 0.1% of the prior two weeks' declines which had lowered sales 1.5% from the yearend high, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. The average of sales in January are [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 24 2005
ECRI U.S. Leading Index Higher
The Weekly Leading Index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose sharply in the latest week due to lower initial jobless claims and rising mortgage applications. Six month growth in the index [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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