The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank reported that its General Business Conditions Index fell sharply in February to -12.5. That followed a January drop to -5.8. Despite the latest decline, it was to be expected for this time of [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| Feb 21 2013Philadelphia Fed Business Activity Index Shows Seasonal Deterioration
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Feb 21 2013
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Tick Higher
Initial unemployment insurance claims rose to 362,000 (0.0% y/y) during the week ended February 16 versus a little-revised 342,000 a week earlier. Consensus expectations were for 354,000 claims. The four week moving average of claims [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Feb 21 2013
U.S. Consumer Price Inflation Held Back By Lower Energy Prices
During January, the consumer price index was unchanged (1.6% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Expectations were for a 0.1% uptick. However, elsewhere there was newfound strength in pricing power. Prices excluding food and energy [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Feb 20 2013
U.S. Gasoline Prices Add to Earlier Gains
The pump price for a gallon of regular gasoline has developed an uptrend. Last week's 14 cent increase to $3.75 per gallon pulled them up 4.3% y/y. The norm for this time of year, when driving is reduced, is for prices to decline. [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Feb 20 2013
U.S. Single-family Housing Starts Improve; Total Led Lower By Multi-family
Despite record cold temperatures, starts of single-family homes inched up 0.8% last month to 613,000 (20.0% y/y), the highest level since July 2008. Total housing starts of 890,000 in January, however, were off 8.5% (+23.6% y/y) due [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Feb 20 2013
U.S. PPI Increases Moderately
The producer price index for finished goods gained 0.2% last month (1.4% y/y) after a revised 0.3% December fall. Expectations had been for a 0.4% increase. (Data back to 2008 were revised due to updated seasonal factors.) Prices [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Feb 19 2013
U.S. Home Builders Index Slips M/M And Traffic Declines
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo dipped to 46 this month following two months at 47. Expectations were for a slight increase. Nevertheless, the index level remained up by [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Feb 15 2013
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Improves Again
The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment in mid-February rose to 76.3 (1.3% y/y) from 73.8 in January. The figure remained down versus the November high of 82.7 and compared to consensus expectations for 71.5. During [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Feb 15 2013
U.S. Industrial Output Dips As Strength in Factory Sector Eases
Industrial production slipped 0.1% last month following a 0.4% December rise, initially reported as 0.3%. (Data back through 2011 were revised.) A 0.2% gain had been expected in the Action Economics survey. Colder than normal [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Feb 15 2013
Empire State Factory Index Shows Broad-based Improvement
The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions moved back into positive territory in February following six consecutive months in the red. The increase to 10.04 compared to an unrevised -7.78 in January and beat [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Feb 14 2013
U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Fall Again
The job market is on the road to recovery. Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 341,000 (-5.5% y/y) during the week ended February 9 versus a revised 368,000 a week earlier, reported initially as 366,000. Consensus [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Feb 14 2013
U.S. Business Inventory Accumulation Rate Moderates
Inventories are not sitting for long on businesses' shelves. Business inventories rose 0.1% (5.5% y/y) during December following a downwardly revised 0.2% November increase. That was the slowest monthly rise in six months. It lowered [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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