The Chicago Business Barometer rebounded to 56.2 in October following its sharp September decline to 48.7. This is the highest reading since January. Expectations had been for 49.7 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| Oct 30 2015Chicago Business Barometer Nears This Year's High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 30 2015
U.S. Employment Cost Index Bounces Back
The employment cost index for private industry workers improved 0.6% in Q3'15 (1.9% y/y), following an unrevised zero change during Q2. The number matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The index for the [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 30 2015
U.S. Personal Spending & Income Inch Higher; Prices Ease
Personal consumption expenditures edged 0.1% higher (3.4% y/y) during September following an unrevised 0.4% August increase. It was the smallest gain since January and missed expectations for a 0.2% rise in the Action Economics [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 29 2015
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Remain Near 1973 Low
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 1,000 during the week ended October 24 to 260,000. The prior week's level was unrevised. The figure remained near the November 1973 low. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 29 2015
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending sales of single-family homes fell 2.3% during September (+2.5% y/y) following an unrevised 1.4% August decline. Expectations were for a 1.0% increase according to [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 29 2015
U.S. GDP Growth Is Reduced by Inventory Decumulation
The economy grew 1.5% (AR) last quarter following a 3.9% Q2 increase. The shedding of inventories sapped 1.4 percentage points from growth, reversing modest accumulation during the prior six months. Inventory decumulation came as [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 29 2015
U.S. GDP Growth is Reduced by Inventory Decumulation
The economy grew 1.5% (AR) last quarter following a 3.9% Q2 increase. The shedding of inventories sapped 1.4 percentage points from growth, reversing accumulation during the prior six months. Inventory decumulation came as final [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 28 2015
FOMC Holds Interest Rates Steady but Upgrades Assessment of the Economy
At today's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed indicated that "economic activity will expand at a moderate pace" instead of suggesting that "recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 28 2015
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Ease
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Market Volume Index declined 3.5% in the latest week (+8.1% y/y) following an 11.8% rise during the prior period. The Association indicated that extreme volatility in [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 27 2015
U.S. Gasoline and Natural Gas Costs Plumb New Lows
Gasoline prices at the pump declined last week to $2.23 per gallon (-27.1% y/y), the lowest level since the middle of February. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the seasonal variation in pump prices. The seasonally [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 27 2015
U.S. Consumer Confidence Retreats to Three-Month Low
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index in October unexpectedly reversed improvement during the prior two months. The overall index declined 4.9% to 97.6 but remained up 3.7% y/y. The consensus expectation was for a level of [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 27 2015
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Decline Is Broad-Based
New orders for durable goods fell 1.2% during September (-3.0% y/y) following a 3.0% August drop, revised from -2.0%. Expectations had been for a 1.0% decline in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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