Global| Feb 25 2016U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rebound; Capital Goods Surge
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Factory sector activity is gaining strength. New orders for durable goods recovered 4.9% during January (1.8% y/y) following a 4.6% December decline, revised from -5.1%. A 2.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics [...]
Factory sector activity is gaining strength. New orders for durable goods recovered 4.9% during January (1.8% y/y) following a 4.6% December decline, revised from -5.1%. A 2.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
An 11.5% surge (6.7% y/y) in transportation sector orders led the recovery, as it made up a 12.1% decline. Nondefense aircraft orders surged by 54.2% (5.2% y/y) following sharp declines in the prior two months. Defense aircraft orders also jumped 84.8% (22 .6% y/y) and motor vehicle orders gained 3.0% (10.7% y/y). Outside of the transportation sector, orders advanced 1.8% (-0.6% y/y) and made up declines in the prior two months.
Machinery orders jumped 6.9% (0.4% y/y) and recouped losses during November & December. Orders for electrical equipment increased 1.1% (-0.7% y/y), strong for the third straight month. Computer & electronic product orders gained 0.8% (7.0% y/y) after a 1.9% decline. Computer & related product orders jumped 6.4%, but they were down 8.9% y/y. Communications equipment bookings recovered 9.6% (-4.1% y/y) following a 17.4% drop. Fabricated metals orders increased 1.6% (-0.2% y/y) and primary metal orders gained 0.7% (-14.4% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods increased 1.9% (0.9% y/y) following a 1.6% drop. Outside of transportation, shipments edged 0.2% higher, but were down 0.9% y/y. Unfilled orders ticked 0.1% higher (-1.8% y/y) following a 0.5% fall. Outside of transportation backlogs rose 0.2% (-2.0% y/y). Durable goods inventories eased 0.1% (-0.8% y/y). Outside of transportation, inventories dropped 0.4% (-2.4% y/y), and they've been declining steadily since May.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | 4.9 | -4.6 | -0.5 | 1.8 | -3.3 | 6.8 | 2.2 |
| Transportation | 11.5 | -12.1 | -0.5 | 6.7 | -4.8 | 6.1 | 6.5 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 1.8 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -2.5 | 7.2 | 0.1 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 21.6 | -14.1 | -7.9 | -1.5 | -10.2 | 6.6 | 2.8 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 3.9 | -3.7 | -0.9 | -2.8 | -3.7 | 6.3 | -1.0 |
| Shipments | 1.9 | -1.6 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 |
| Inventories | -0.1 | 0.2 | -0.3 | -0.8 | -0.4 | 6.1 | 2.4 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.1 | -0.5 | 0.1 | -1.8 | -1.9 | 11.4 | 6.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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