Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Feb 07 2018

  U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Meander; Interest Rates Surge

  The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Volume Index rose 0.7% last week (5.8% y/y) following a 2.6% decline during the prior week. Purchase loan applications were stable (9.3% y/y) following a [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 06 2018

  U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Rise

  Retail gasoline prices increased to $2.64 per gallon (15.0% y/y) last week from $2.61 per gallon. They remained at the highest level since mid-September. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the seasonal variation in [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 06 2018

  U.S. Trade Deficit Increases As Import Growth Outstrips Exports

  The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services increased to $53.1 billion in December from $50.4 billion in November, revised from $50.5 billion. A $52.0 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 05 2018

  U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Surges

  The Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) strengthened to 59.9 during January from 56.0 in December, revised up from the initially reported 55.9. It was the highest level [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 02 2018

  U.S. Payroll Increase Is Moderate While Wage Growth Accelerates Y/Y

  The labor market remains firm. Nonfarm payrolls increased 200,000 (1.5% y/y) during January following a 160,000 December gain and a 216,000 November rise. Together these two figures were revised down by 24,000. A 184,000 increase in [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 02 2018

  U.S. Payroll Increase Is Moderate While Wage Growth Accelerates Y/Y

  The labor market remains firm. Nonfarm payrolls increased 200,000 (1.5% y/y) during January following a 160,000 December gain and a 216,000 November rise. Together these two figures were revised down by 24,000. A 184,000 increase in [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 01 2018

  U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Continue to Decline

  Total sales of light vehicles during January declined 4.1% (-1.8% y/y) to 17.12 million (SAAR) following a 1.9% December increase to 17.85 million, according to the Autodata Corporation. It compared to an 18.6 million September high [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 01 2018

  U.S. Construction Spending Increases

  The value of construction put-in-place increased 0.7% (1.6% y/y) during December following a 0.6% November gain, initially reported as 0.8%. A 0.5% gain in activity had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During all [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 01 2018

  ISM Factory Sector Index Slips but Remains Firm

  The ISM manufacturing sector composite index eased to 59.1 during January from 59.3 in December, revised from 59.7. A level of 59.0 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 01 2018

  U.S. Productivity Eases; Unit Labor Costs Increase

  Output per hour in the nonfarm business sector slipped at a 0.1% annual rate during Q4'17 following a 2.7% Q3 rise, revised from 3.0%. It was the first decline in productivity since Q1'16. A 1.2% rise had been expected in the Action [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 31 2018

  FOMC Leaves Rates Unchanged

  At today's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the federal funds rate target was held steady in a range of 1.25%-1.50%. The financial markets had expected today's action as indicated in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 31 2018

  U.S. Pending Home Sales Increase

  The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales increased 0.5% (0.5% y/y) during December to an index level of 110.1 (2001=100). This followed a 0.5% November increase, moving the index to the highest level [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief