Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Feb 13 2018

  U.S. Small Businesses Remain Optimistic and Increase Prices

  The Small Business Optimism Index from the National Federation of Independent Business for January increased 1.9% to 106.9 (+0.9% y/) following a 2.4% December decline. The level of optimism was up from 95.3 during all of 2016. A [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 13 2018

  U.S. Energy Product Prices Ease

  Retail gasoline prices declined to $2.61 per gallon last week (+13.0% y/y) from $2.64 per gallon. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the seasonal variation in gasoline pump prices. The seasonally-adjusted price fell to [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 12 2018

  U.S. Government Budget Balance Deteriorates

  The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $49.2 billion budget deficit during January 2018. A surplus of $50.0 billion had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the first four [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 12 2018

  FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Are Strengthening

  The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) rose 2.7% during the last four weeks following a 6.7% gain throughout all of last year. A 2.3% December-to-December [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 09 2018

  U.S. Wholesale Inventories and Sales Strengthen

  During all of last year, inventories at the wholesale level increased 3.5%, the largest increase in three years. During December alone, inventories increased 0.4% (3.5% y/y) following a 0.6% November rise, revised from 0.8%. In the [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 08 2018

  U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline

  Initial claims foe jobless insurance fell to 221,000 (-6.8% y/y) during the week ended February 3 from an unrevised 230,000 claims in the prior week. Expectations had been for 234,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 07 2018

  U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Cools

  Consumer credit outstanding increased $18.44 billion during December following a $31.03 billion November rise and a $22.99 billion October gain, revised from $27.96 billion and $20.53 billion. It was the weakest monthly increase since [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 07 2018

  U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Meander; Interest Rates Surge

  The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Volume Index rose 0.7% last week (5.8% y/y) following a 2.6% decline during the prior week. Purchase loan applications were stable (9.3% y/y) following a [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 06 2018

  U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Rise

  Retail gasoline prices increased to $2.64 per gallon (15.0% y/y) last week from $2.61 per gallon. They remained at the highest level since mid-September. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the seasonal variation in [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 06 2018

  U.S. Trade Deficit Increases As Import Growth Outstrips Exports

  The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services increased to $53.1 billion in December from $50.4 billion in November, revised from $50.5 billion. A $52.0 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 05 2018

  U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Surges

  The Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) strengthened to 59.9 during January from 56.0 in December, revised up from the initially reported 55.9. It was the highest level [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 02 2018

  U.S. Payroll Increase Is Moderate While Wage Growth Accelerates Y/Y

  The labor market remains firm. Nonfarm payrolls increased 200,000 (1.5% y/y) during January following a 160,000 December gain and a 216,000 November rise. Together these two figures were revised down by 24,000. A 184,000 increase in [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief