Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Oct 31 2018

  U.S. Chicago Business Barometer Weakens; Price Gains Slow

  The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer declined to 58.4 in October from September's 60.4. It was the third consecutive monthly decline and left the index below its December peak of 67.8. The Action Economics Forecast [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 31 2018

  U.S. ADP Private Sector Payrolls Remain Firm

  The ADP National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 227,000 (2.0% y/y) during October following a 218,000 September rise, revised from 230,000. Expectations had been for a 185,000 gain in the Action [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 30 2018

  U.S. Consumer Confidence Strengthens to 18-Year High

  Consumer confidence during October improved to the highest level since September 2000. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased 1.9% (9.3% y/y) to 137.9 from 135.3 in September, initially reported as 138.4. The October [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 30 2018

  U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices Fall

  Gasoline prices declined three cents last week to an average $2.81 per gallon (+13.0% y/y). It was the lowest price since late-April. Prices peaked at $2.90 earlier in the month. Haver Analytics constructs factors to adjust for the [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 29 2018

  Texas Factory Sector Index Improves but Expectations Ease

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index rose to 29.4 during October and recovered most of its September decline. Nevertheless, the index has moved [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 29 2018

  U.S. Personal Income Increase Lags Gain in Spending

  Personal income rose 0.2% (4.4% y/y) during September following a 0.4% August increase, revised from 0.3%. A 0.4% gain was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Leading last month's weaker rise was proprietors' income [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 26 2018

  U.S. GDP Growth and Price Gains Ease

  Real gross domestic product increased 3.5% (AR, 3.0% y/y) during Q3'18 following a 4.2% rise in the second quarter. A 3.3% advance had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Supporting economic growth last quarter was [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 25 2018

  Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Sector Index Slackens

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity declined to 8 in October, the lowest level since December 2016. It remained down from the May high of 29. The ISM- [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 25 2018

  U.S. Pending Home Sales Improve

  The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales increased 0.5% in September (-1.0% y/y) following a little-revised 1.9% fall during August. The index level rose to 104.6 in September (2001=100) compared to [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 25 2018

  U.S. Durable Goods Orders Improve Unexpectedly

  New orders for durable goods increased 0.8% (7.9% y/y) during September following a 4.6% August jump, revised from 4.5%. A 1.9% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The rise in orders was heavily [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 24 2018

  U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Improve as Interest Rates Stabilize

  The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Index rose 4.9% (-15.6% y/y) in the week ending October 19 following declines during the prior two weeks. Purchase loan applications improved 2.0% (0.2% [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 24 2018

  U.S. New Home Sales and Prices Decline

  The market for new homes weakened sharply this year. New single-family home sales fell 5.5% (-13.2% y/y) during September to 553,000 (SAAR). It was the fourth consecutive monthly decline, pushing sales 13.1% below the high reached in [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief