Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Oct 03 2019

  U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Edge Higher

  Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 219,000 (0.1% y/y) during the week ended September 28 from 215,000 in the previous week, revised from 213,000. It was the highest level of claims in four weeks. The Action Economics [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 02 2019

  U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Rebound As Interest Rates Remain Low

  The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its Mortgage Loan Index increased 8.1% (57.1% y/y) in the week ending September 27, following a 10.1% decline during the prior week. Applications to refinance a loan rebounded 14.2% [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 02 2019

  U.S. ADP Private Payroll Growth Moderates

  The ADP National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 135,000 (1.7% y/y) during September after an August rise of 157,000, revised from 195,000. Payrolls increased 143,000 during July, revised from [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 01 2019

  U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Remain Healthy

  The Autodata Corporation reported that sales of light vehicles during September improved 0.9% (-0.6% y/y) to 17.23 million units (SAAR) from 17.07 million during August. The increase left the average level of sales during Q3'19 at [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 01 2019

  U.S. Construction Spending Steadies

  The value of construction put-in-place improved 0.1% (-1.9% y/y) during August following a little-revised stability in July. A 0.4% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Construction activity in the private [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 01 2019

  ISM Factory Sector Index Declines to Ten-Year Low

  Weakness continues in the factory sector. The ISM manufacturing index fell to 47.8 during September from 49.1 in August. It was the lowest level since June 2009 which was the end of the last recession. The Action Economics Forecast [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 01 2019

  U.S. Energy Product Prices Decline

  In the week ended September 30, the U.S. pump price for gasoline of $2.64 per gallon (-7.8% y/y) compared to $2.65 during the prior week. These were the highest prices since early-August. Haver Analytics adjusts these price figures [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 30 2019

  Texas Factory Sector Activity Eases

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index fell to 1.5 during September from 2.7 in July. It remained down sharply from the February 2018 high of 38.2 [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 30 2019

  U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Declines

  The Chicago Business Barometer weakened to 47.1 during September from 50.4 during August. It was the third reading in the last four months below the break-even point of 50. Expectations had been for 50.1 in the Action Economics [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 27 2019

  U.S. Personal Spending Unexpectedly Slows as Income Improves

  Consumers exhibited caution last month despite strength in earnings. Personal consumption expenditures edged 0.1% higher (3.7% y/y) during August following a 0.5% July rise, revised from 0.6%. A 0.3% gain had been expected in the [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 26 2019

  Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Remains Negative

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that its index of regional manufacturing business activity of -2 in September, the third straight negative monthly reading. These negative figures suggest declining business activity [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 26 2019

  U.S. GDP Growth Is Unrevised; The Economy Continues to Increase at a Moderate Pace

  Economic growth slowed in the second quarter at an unrevised 2.0% rate. The figure matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Last quarter's increase compared to a 3.1% rise in the first quarter. GDP growth slowed [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief