• Midwest economic activity continues to decline. • Weakness in new orders, employment and production moderated this month. • Expectations again improve modestly. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that its manufacturing [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| May 28 2020Kansas City Fed Factory Remains Negative, but Deterioration Moderates
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| May 28 2020
U.S. Pending Home Sales Plunge to Record Low
• Pending home sales fell 21.8% in April. • Double-digit declines were recorded for second month across the country. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales plummeted 21.8% in April (-33.8% y/y). [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| May 28 2020
U.S. GDP Decline in Q1'20 is Deepened; Corporate Profits Plunge
• Revised GDP figures continue to show sharp falloff in activity. • Profits decline is greatest since 2008. • All sectors decline, except housing. • Price inflation remains under wraps. U.S. GDP declined 5.0% (SAAR) last quarter, [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| May 27 2020
U.S. Mortgage Applications Reveal Strength in Housing Demand
• Purchase applications continue to rise. • Refinancings ease. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its Mortgage Loan Application Index rose 2.7% (75.1% y/y) last week and reversed the prior week's decline. Purchase [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| May 27 2020
U.S. Energy Prices Strengthen
• Gasoline prices rise to just under $2.00 per gallon. • Crude oil prices continue to increase. • Natural gas prices improve a bit. Retail gasoline prices increased to $1.96 per gallon (-30.5% y/y) in the week ended May 25 from $1.88 [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| May 26 2020
U.S. Consumer Confidence Improves Slightly as Some States Open Up in May
• Expectations for business conditions improve moderately. • Assessment of current activity weakens further. • Age groups exhibit mixed feelings. The Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence rose 1.1% (-34.0% y/y) this month to [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| May 26 2020
U.S. FHFA House Price Inflation Slows
• Weakening is broad-based around the country. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Price Index edged 0.1% higher during March following a 0.8% February gain, revised from 0.7%. The y/y gain nevertheless remained steady at 5.9%. [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| May 26 2020
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Signals Intensified Recession
• Effects of COVID-19 outbreak increasingly restrains economy. • Contraction in activity is broad-based. The National Activity Index (CFNAI) weakened to -16.74 during April from -4.97 in March, revised from -4.19. It was a record [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| May 22 2020
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Price Rebound Led by Petroleum
• Oil prices rise as lockdown eases. • Metals prices improve. • Plywood prices surge. The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) jumped 9.4% during the four weeks [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| May 21 2020
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Fall Sharply Again in April
• Reflecting impact of pandemic, total leading index declines 4.4% in April, following record 7.4% drop in March. • Coincident indicators confirm deep economic recession. • Lagging indicators detect labor market stress. The Conference [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| May 21 2020
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Remains Weak But Expectations Improve
• Business activity index is negative for third straight month. • Orders, shipments and employment readings shaved losses, while remaining negative. • Expectations improve again. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| May 20 2020
U.S. Mortgage Applications Decline As Rates Are Little Changed
• Refinancings plummet but purchases surge. • Home buyers lock in low financing rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its Mortgage Loan Application Index fell 2.6% (+64.0% y/y) last week following negligible increases [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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