• Factory sector activity backpedals modestly. • Components are mixed. • Price index continues to increase. The recent improvement in factory sector activity moderated last month. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| Oct 01 2020ISM Manufacturing Index Slips During September
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Oct 01 2020U.S. Personal Income Falls Sharply While Spending Increases in August
• Income decline due to lower unemployment insurance payments. • Spending continues to strengthen. • Price inflation eases. Personal income declined 2.7% during August (+4.7% y/y) following a 0.5% July rise, revised from 0.4%. A 2.1% [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Sep 30 2020Chicago Business Barometer Surges in September
• Business activity is strengthening. • Pricing power also is improved. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer jumped to 62.4 during September from 51.2 in August. It was the highest level since December 2018 and up from [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Sep 30 2020U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payrolls Firm in September
• Small-sized & medium-sized payroll growth improves. • Employment gain exceeds expectations. Job market improvement is ongoing. The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private payrolls increased 749,000 (-7.5% y/y) [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Sep 29 2020U.S. Consumer Confidence Rebounds Meaningfully in September
• Improves to highest level in six months. • Appraisal of both current conditions and expectations firm. • Confidence rises in all age brackets. The Conference Board's monthly consumer confidence survey showed improvement this month [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Sep 29 2020U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Continues to Deepen in August
• Goods trade deficit widened more than expected as both export & import growth remained firm. • Y/Y export deterioration continues to surpass imports. The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened to $82.94 billion [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Sep 28 2020Texas Factory Sector Activity Picks Up As COVID-19 Cases Decline
• Pricing power strengthens. • Expectations continue to improve. The Dallas Federal Reserve reported in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index increased to 13.6% during September, only the [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Sep 25 2020U.S. Durable Goods Orders Edge Higher
• Core capital goods orders rise strongly. • Shipments also were firm, but inventories continued to run off. Manufacturers' orders for durable goods rose a modest 0.4% (-4.6% y/y) during August following an 11.7% jump in July, revised [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Sep 25 2020U.S. Durable Goods Orders Edge Higher
• Core capital goods orders rise strongly. • Shipments also were firm, but inventories continued to run off. Manufacturers' orders for durable goods rose a modest 0.4% (-4.6% y/y) during August following an 11.7% jump in July, revised [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Sep 24 2020Kansas City Fed Factory Index Eases in September
• Expectations also weakened slightly. • Pricing power improved. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that their manufacturing sector business activity index fell to 11 in September after increasing to 14 in August. These [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Sep 24 2020U.S. New Home Sales Strengthen Unexpectedly in August, But Prices Ease
• New single-family home sales increased to highest level since September 2006. • Sales improvement varied m/m across the country. • Prices weakened notably. Sales of new single-family homes increased 4.8% during August (43.2% y/y) to [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Sep 23 2020U.S. FHFA House Price Index Remains Strong in July
• FHFA home price index gains continue to improve. • Price increases are widespread across the country. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Price Index strengthened 1.0% during July following a like increase in June, revised [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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