Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Jan 19 2021

  U.S. Energy Prices Continue to Rise

  • Gasoline prices reach March 2020 high. • Oil prices increase as pandemic shuts down crude oil output. • Natural gas prices continue to rise with seasonal demand. The price of regular gasoline rose to $2.38 per gallon (-6.2% y/y) in [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 18 2021

  U.S. Housing Affordability Improves During November

  • Declines in home prices & interest rates boost buying power. The National Association of Realtors reported that its Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index rose 0.7% (-0.7% y/y) to 168.2 in November from 167.0 in October, [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 15 2021

  U.S. Business Inventories Accumulate during November as Sales Weaken

  • Business inventories rise for fifth straight month. • Sales ease after six months of increase. • Inventory-to-sales ratio remains at six-year low. Total business inventories increased 0.5% during November (-3.2% y/y) following a [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 15 2021

  U.S. Retail Sales Continue to Fall During December

  • Consumer spending weakens for third straight month. • Spending declines are widespread across categories. Total retail sales including food service & drinking establishments declined 0.7% (+2.9% y/y) during December following a 1.4% [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 14 2021

  U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Surge Unexpectedly

  • State initial claims jump may reflect holiday distortions. • Continuing claims also jump. • Insured jobless rate hits four-week high. Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased in the week ended January 9 to 965,000 from [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 13 2021

  U.S. Government Budget Deficit Stays Roughly Steady in December

  • Deficit share of GDP continues to rise. • Outlay surge still driven by increased jobless benefits. • Personal tax receipts remain under pressure. The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal budget deficit of $143.6 [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 13 2021

  U.S. Consumer Price Inflation Picks Up in December; Core Price Gain Decelerates

  • Energy & food prices strengthened last month. • Pricing power in 2020 remained under control. • Goods price inflation inched up while services decelerated. Retail pricing power remained limited last year. The Consumer Price Index [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 12 2021

  U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Rate Eases During November; Hiring Rate Steadies

  • Number of job openings drops as well. • Level of hiring improves. • Layoffs increase as quits hold steady. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that on the last business day of November, the total job openings rate slipped to [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 12 2021

  U.S. Small Business Optimism Index Deteriorates in December

  • NFIB Small Business Optimism falls to lowest level since May. • Worries surge about economic growth & sales. • Pricing power falls slightly. The National Federation of Independent Business' (NFIB) reported that its Small Business [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 11 2021

  FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Continue to Strengthen

  • Production gains lift prices. • Commodity price strength remains broad-based. Strength in industrial output is continuing. Industrial production rose during each of the seven months ended November, up 20.5% during that period. At [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 08 2021

  U.S. Consumer Credit Accelerates During November

  • Nonrevolving usage picks up. • Credit card balances continue to fall. Consumer credit outstanding increased $15.3 billion during November (0.3% y/y) following a $4.5 billion October rise, revised from $7.2 billion. A $9.0 billion [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 08 2021

  U.S. Payrolls Fall Unexpectedly in December

  • Coronavirus restrictions, business shutdowns & severe weather cause decline. • Earnings growth accelerates. • Jobless rate holds steady at lowest level since March. The recovery in the labor market came to an abrupt end in December. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief