Introducing

Robert Brusca

Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.

Publications by Robert Brusca

France| Aug 09 2023
French Trade Trends Show Deficit Contraction
French trade trends show slowing year-over-year patterns for both exports and imports of goods excluding military equipment. While both flows are decelerating, it's imports where growth has turned negative. Imports show negative growth rates over 12 months, 6 months and 3 months. Exports are slowing year-over-year; however, in terms of shorter-term trends, exports show growth of 4.3% over 12 months, growth at an annual rate of 5.3% over 6 months, and growth accelerating to an 11.9% annual rate over 3 months. This is an accelerating short-term pattern that defies its longer-term year-over-year slowing trend.

For exports, the three-component flows depicted in the table {for 1) food, beverages & tobacco, 2) Transportation equipment, and 3) Other} all show positive trends. There are accelerations in progress from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months for all of them. From that standpoint, the strengthening of exports within the last year is a durable trend.

For imports, food, beverages & tobacco hint at some acceleration with very similar 6- and 12-month growth rates between 3- and 3½-percent that then accelerate to 9.6% over 3 months. Imports of transportation equipment, however, show waffling as they grow at a 12.4% annual rate over 12 months, slow to a 3.5% annual rate over 6 months, and then accelerate to a 10.4% annual rate over 3 months; that's a 3-month growth rate that's still below the 12-month growth rate and does not count as a tendency to accelerate. For ‘other’ imports, French trade results show declines on all horizons, but without any clear trend. Other import flows decline at a 13.7% annual rate over 12-months, that decline steps up to a -25.6% annual rate over 6 months, then it trims the speed of decline to -5.5% over 3 months. On balance, the ‘other’ category for French imports simply shows ongoing weakness but without a clear trend.

France’s current account in June swings into surplus after logging a deficit in May and rather persistent deficits in previous months. One year ago, imports outgained exports on a growth rate of 35.8% for imports compared to 20.7% for exports. However, over the last 12 months, that worm has turned, and imports are falling at a 9.2% annual rate, while exports have advanced at a 4.3% annual rate. The changes in these growth rates are what underline the swing in the current account from deficit territory into surplus territory. France’s trade balance continues to be in deficit in June. However, the deficit in June is only about 60% the size of the deficit averaged over the last 12 months.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Japan| Aug 08 2023
Japan’s Economy Watchers Index Waffles Higher
Japan's economy watchers index moved up to 54.4 in July from 53.6 in June. Six of nine of the component readings improved month-to-month. The sector readings did not improve on the month for eating and drinking places, for services, or for housing.

The future index also improved month-to-month, rising to 54.1 in July from 52.8 in June. Only one component reading in the future index backed off month-to-month; that was for manufacturers.

Over 12 months and over six months, all the point-to-point changes are positive in the current index; however, over three months we see a decline in the headline as well as in five of the components. Over 3 months, there's weakening in households, eating and drinking establishments, services, nonmanufacturers, and in employment overall.

The future index shows similar results. Over 6 months and 12 months, the headline for future readings and components all improved. However, over 3 months the future reading is lower and five of its individual readings are lower as well. The 3-month change in the future readings is lower for households, retailing, services, manufacturers and employment.

However, the economy watchers indexes have come a long way. The survey is a diffusion index so that it's queue standings have substantial meaning. The current index has a 94.1 percentile standing on data back to 2002 and the future index has a 92.5 percentile standing; both of these readings are quite high even though they derive from diffusion values with readings of only 54.

In the current index, the strongest readings are for households, in the services sector, for retailing, for eating and drinking places, and among corporations for nonmanufacturers. The weakest queue standings are in housing, for employment, and for manufacturers.

The future index shows its strongest readings with 90th percentile standings or higher: eating and drinking places, retailing, services, households, nonmanufacturers and corporations overall. The weak readings in the future index are housing, employment and manufacturers. The weakness is in the same sectors as those that lag the most in the current index.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Germany| Aug 07 2023
German IP Heads South...
Despite a previously issued strong orders report (a report that is summarized in the table below), German industrial output backtracked in June, falling by 1.5% month-to-month after falling by 0.1% in May. More broadly, the sequential growth rates show German industrial output lower by 1.8% over 12 months, rising at a 1.7% annual rate over 6 months and then falling at a 5.2% annual rate over 3 months.

In the current month, sector activity in Germany is mixed with consumer goods output rising 1.8%, capital goods output falling 3.9%, and intermediate goods output rising by 0.4%. This pattern of increases and declines is completely the reverse of what each industry reported in May.

Looking at industries over a broader sequential framework, consumer output accelerates from -0.8% over 12 months, to a smaller 0.2% negative growth rate over 6 months, to a solid 7.6% annual rate of increase over 3 months. Capital goods, however, head any other direction. Capital goods output rises by 4.3% over 12 months, declines at a 2.5% annual rate over 6 months, and then declines faster, at a 5.6% annual rate over 3 months. Intermediate goods show a chaotic pattern with output falling 5.4% over 12 months, log a strong 8.2% annual rate gain over 6 months, and then fall at a 2.9% annual rate over 3 months.

The construction sector also shows a chaotic pattern. Construction output fell by 2.7% in June after increasing in May and April. Construction output is down by 1% over 12 months, rises at nearly a 17% annual rate over 6 months, and then collapses to fall at a 3.2% annual rate over 3 months. There is no pattern there.

Manufacturing alone shows a 1.2% drop in output in June after smaller increases in both May and April. Manufacturing output has a chaotic pattern with a 0.4% fall over 12 months, a 1.5% annual rate of increase over 6 months and a 2.5% annual rate of decline over 3 months. The orders figures for manufacturing are strong as we reported earlier with explosive growth rates culminating in a 68.1% annual rate over 3 months. Big-ticket orders in the aircraft sector are responsible for most of that strength. In contrast to the strong orders, real sales in manufacturing fell in June by 1.6% after rising in May and falling in April. Their pattern shows a steady menu of increases, but the 0.4% rise over 12 months eases to zero over 6 months and then accelerates to 6.1% over 3 months. That's a small deviation from what would otherwise be an accelerating pattern.

Other manufacturing gauges for Germany show the ZEW current index weakening sharply in June and weakening from April to May to June while that same index shows improvement from 12 months to six months to three months. The IFO manufacturing gauge shows a steady slippage from April to May to June, but from 12-months to 6-months to-3-months the IFO is firm. IFO’s manufacturing expectations survey slipped decidedly from 96.6 in April, to 90.7 in May, to 84.1 in June. However, the progression from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months shows a step up from 12 months to 6-months and then a small step back from 6-months to 3-months. The EU Commission industrial gauge also shows monthly slippage April, to May, to June, and it shows a confirming slippage from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months. Germany's industrial indicators show us some mixed patterns with a good deal of weakness trending over the last 3 months but with more substantial firmness generally from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months.

Manufacturing in select other European countries shows widespread weakness with declines in output from France, Spain, and Portugal in June, while Norway posted a flat performance. All these countries showed increases in May and three of the four had declines in April. Rates from 12-months to six-months to three-months show a chaotic pattern in France as well as in Spain. There are persistent declines in Portugal that border on deceleration. Norway shows positive growth rates on all horizons; there is only a modest tendency toward strengthening.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Germany| Aug 04 2023
Sharp Rise in German Orders Generated by Foreign Sector
German orders surged in June rising by 7% after gaining 6.2% in May and after rising 0.2% in April. This is a particularly strong stretch for German orders. Orders are being pushed ahead by the foreign sector as foreign orders grew 13.5% month-to-month in June after rising 6.8% in May. Domestic orders fell by 2% in June after rising 5.3% in May.

Sequential trends Sequentially, German orders are accelerating, growing by 2.9% over 12 months, rising at a 13.6% annual rate over 6 months then exploding at a 68.1% annual rate over 3 months. This profile is engaged to some extent by both foreign and domestic orders, but it clearly is being driven by foreign orders. Foreign orders rise 8.6% year-over-year, advance at a 30.8% annual rate over 6 months, and then skyrocket at 108.8% annual rate over 3 months. In contrast, domestic orders over 12 months fall by 5%, and then they weaken further, falling at a 7.8% pace over 6 months; however, over the most recent 3 months domestic orders turn around and grow sharply at a 21.7% annual rate.

An unexpected -and probably not lasting- surge in orders The strength in orders Germany experienced in June has come from large orders substantially related to the aerospace industry mostly concentrated from fellow members within the European Monetary Union, augmented by moderate strength from outside the Monetary Union as well. The surge in German orders saw large new product orders rise sharply in June; excluding this surge, new orders fell by 2.6% month-to-month. Orders from other European Monetary Union members grew sharply in June, rising 27.2% on strong demand from the aerospace industry. Foreign orders from outside of the euro area were solid, rising 5% month-to-month. In contrast, German domestic orders languished, and fell on the month.

Just-completed Q2 Despite this strength, in the quarter-to-date (just completed Q2), orders are rising only 0.9% at an annual rate with foreign orders falling at a 0.4% annual rate and domestic orders rising at a 3% annual rate.

Real sales are pedestrian Real sales across sectors exhibit declines everywhere in June. The sector weakness is surprising in view of the strength in orders. For manufacturing, the sequence of growth rates shows a 0.4% gain in real sales over 12 months, flat performance over 6 months, and a 6.1% gain over 3 months. Over 3 months, mining & manufacturing real sales are up by 6.6% at an annual rate; consumer sales fall by 2.4%, with consumer durable sales extremely weak. Capital goods sales rise strongly at a 22.1% annual rate over 3 months, but intermediate goods sales fall at a 6.7% annual rate over 3 months. In the quarter-to-date, real manufacturing sales are rising at a 1.9% annual rate.

Industrial confidence in EMU’s largest economies EU industrial confidence shows worsening. The confidence for Germany, Italy, and Spain, three of the four largest economies in the European Monetary Union, declined in June. France registers a -7.8 reading for industrial confidence in June, an improvement from its -9.2 reading in May, but clearly not enough to create an overall positive signal for France, Italy, and Spain taken together. Over the last 12 months, all four countries show weaker readings in June than they display over 12 months on average. Looking at point-to-point changes over 12 months, the German economy has fared the worst backtracking by 23.8 points over 12 months, compared to Spain losing 10.5 points, Italy losing 9.2 points and France shedding 7.7 points. These confidence measures when ranked on data since 1990 show lower 33- to 42-percentile rankings for all these countries. All the Big Four economies in the EMU have confidence readings below their respective medians- all are weak.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Aug 03 2023
Globally Total PMIs Slow But Continue to Signal Growth
The total or composite S&P PMIs for July saw worsening as the global PMI is worsening, emerging markets are worsening, developed markets are worsening and are the weakest of all. This follows a similar performance in June when all three groups showed deterioration although May showed improvement for all three groups.

Sequentially, over 3 months, all three of these groups are worsening, over 6 months they're all improving, and over 12 months the overall and developed markets are worsening while emerging markets are improving.

The queue percentile standings show the global PMI with a 42.9 percentile standing, marking it below its 50th percentile and therefore below its median. The HSBC emerging market index has a 67.3 percentile standing, nudging it up into the top one-third in terms of historic standings. Developed markets have a 24.5 percentile standing, sending them to the bottom quartile of their range. This matrix of data portrays overall poor results for the global economy.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Aug 02 2023
Unemployment Rates Remain Low But They Are Not Falling As Much Any More
Unemployment in the European Monetary Union (EMU) held at 6.4% in June, a level that has been stable for three months running. In June, for a group of 12 of some of the oldest EMU members, the unemployment rate at the country level fell for three members: in Italy, Spain, and Greece. The unemployment rate rose month-to-month in Austria, Finland, and Luxembourg. This compares to May when the unemployment rate fell in five of the reporting members and in April when the unemployment rate fell in six of these members.

Which way does the trend blow? While there has been some enthusiasm recently about some improved economic data, particularly in the United States, where data have shown some firmness and inflation has been tempered, the unemployment rates in the European Monetary Union are showing signs of running out of gas when it comes to moving to lower levels. The question at hand is: are things getting better or is the improving trend ending?

Looking at the changes over various periods over 12 months, 6 months and 3 months, we find that unemployment rates have fallen on balance over three months in five EMU members; over 6 months they've declined for seven members; and over 12 months they've declined for six members. By comparison, unemployment rates have risen over 12 months for five members; they rose over 6 months for only two members; and they've risen over 3 months for five members. There's a little bit more back and forth in the changes in unemployment rates compared to the preponderance of declines that used to dominate the trends.

No real back-tracking yet However, what we're seeing for the most part is simply a slowdown in the decline of the unemployment rate while unemployment rates themselves remain at extremely low historic levels. The unemployment rate for the Monetary Union itself has been lower only 0.7% of the time. Across Monetary Union members, only two members have unemployment rates that are above their median and that includes Luxembourg and Austria. On the other hand, Germany has an unemployment rate that has been lower only 5.8% of the time. France has an employment rate that has been lower only 2.6% of the time. Ireland has an unemployment rate that's been lower only 0.3% of the time and the Netherlands has an unemployment rate that has been lower only 9% of the time. There are far more countries with extremely low rates of unemployment than there are countries with unemployment rates above their historic medians. Still, only Ireland is at an historic low rate; Germany and France are above their lows by 0.1 percentage points. But, on average, the unemployment rate low is 1.5 percentage points lower across these 12 members.

Comparing the European Monetary Union to the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan (using the claimant rate for the U.K. to bring the data up to date), we find more backtracking in this group recently than we do in the Monetary Union itself. The U.S. shows the unemployment rate higher on balance over 3 and 6 months. The U.K. shows the claimant rate higher over 3, 6 and 12 months. Japan’s unemployment rate is higher over 12 months and 6 months but then lower over 3 months. The U.S. has an unemployment rate that has been lower only 5.8% of the time, Japan’s rate has been lower 15.5% of the time, while in the U.K. unemployment rate has been lower 60.2% of the time (based on the claimant rate).
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Aug 01 2023
Manufacturing PMIs Waffle and Remain Weak in July
Manufacturing PMIs from S&P waffled in July. Among the 18 reporters, 44% of them improved on the month, a slightly greater proportion than the 38.9% than improved in June and the 33.3% that improved in May. But in all those cases, there is more deterioration than there is improvement although the median reading rose in July. It rose, but it didn’t smell like one.

The median reading improved on the month, rising by 1.4 points to a level of 49.2. The reading from manufacturing overall is below 50, confirming that output continues to decline globally. Looking at the averages from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months. The median over 12 months is 48.7, falling back to 48.4 over 6 months and to 48.2 over 3 months. The data show a very gradual erosion and on the other hand also some relative stability at readings that are just slightly deteriorating in a zone below stable output. Yeah… the results are somewhat uncomfortable, but they're not terrible. The trends don't clearly suggest that deterioration is eminent or that rebound is in the making. It's just a steady drum beat of underperformance and slightly depressing news.

Month-to-month 9 of 18 reporting countries and economic units in the table saw their manufacturing sectors worsen. Over 3 months twelve of these reporting areas worsened; 8 worsened over 6 months compared to 12 months; and over 12 months, 14 are worsening compared to 12-months ago. There's not a clear signal here from the progression. Clearly, the year-on-year comparisons are the weakest and there's some let-up in that weakness over 6 months, but then on the transition to 3-months there's a deteriorating tilt once again and we are left unsure where momentum is headed.

The rank, or queue percentile, standings have a median value in the 25th percentile, in the lower quartile of their range of values for the various countries and reporting units as of July. Only four countries have readings in their 80th percentiles: those are Indonesia, ostensibly Russia, India, and Mexico. The very weakest rankings are in the most developed areas: a 3.8 percentile standing in the EMU, a 3.8 percentile standing in Germany, a 3.8 percentile standing the U.K., and a 5.8 percentile standing in France. The proximity of extreme weakness to the war zone is notable - except for Russia, of course.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
China| Jul 31 2023
China Manufacturing Sector Contracts But Improves Slightly
China's manufacturing sector improved slightly on the month with its PMI reading moving up to 49.3 from 49.0 in June. The reading is still below 50 so it continues to indicate contraction, but there is less contraction than there was a month ago. China has four straight months of manufacturing readings below the level of 50.

The manufacturing PMI reports 11 components, four of which decline month-to-month in July; they are output, employment, new export orders, and imports. Among the 11 component readings, eight of them have individual sector diffusion readings below 50, indicating contraction for that metric.

In June, 8 of 11 components weakened month-to-month with only two component readings having PMI standings above their 50th percentile; the two that scored the highest were delivery speeds and the output, although they were both very mildly above 50 at readings of 50.3 for output and 50.4 for delivery times.

May saw weakening across 10 of 11 components with only delivery times strengthening month-to-month; only delivery times have a reading above its 50th percentile.

Manufacturing readings in China continue to display levels of activity that hover about the unchanged level. March saw a bit of a rebound in the index, but it subsequently lost that bloom and has been below 50 for most of the recent months. In fact, in the 16 most recent months, the Chinese manufacturing PMI is below the diffusion reading of 50 in eleven of those months. During that stretch, two of its ‘above 50’ readings are at 50.1 and another is at 50.2. Clearly the last year and a half has been a weak year for Chinese manufacturing.

Average data show 3-month readings below the breakeven 50-diffusion mark in 9 of 11 areas. Over 6 months, 7 readings are below the diffusion value of 50, while over 12 months, all the sector readings except the one for output average below 50. These statistics confirm a great deal of subpar performance in Chinese manufacturing recently.

The queue percentile standings for the Chinese data from July 2023 back to 2005 show the PMI headline and all the sectors with standings below their 50th percentile except for only two sectors: delivery times and stocks of major inputs. For the rest, the fact that readings are below the 50th percentile mark means that they are below their medians for the period. Delivery times have a 67.7 percentile standing which put them barely into the top one-third of its historic readings, while stocks of major inputs have a 58.5 percentile standing, above its historic median.

The manufacturing PMI itself stands in its lower 10-percentile, which is extremely weak; new orders run low, in their 12th-percentile, output is in its lower 10-percentile, and new export orders in their lower 7th percentile. Imports are in their lower 12th percentile and so on. The percentile standings are extremely low and reinforced the signal that not only are diffusion values showing significant weakness across components as well as contraction, but the level of activity indicated by these sector readings compared to what they show historically are extremely weak readings.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Europe| Jul 28 2023
EU Sentiment Erodes on EU Commission Metrics
The European Commission reading for overall sentiment in July slipped again to 94.5 from 95.3 in June, continuing a 3-month rundown in the overall assessment of sentiment for the Monetary Union.

July saw slippage in the industrial measure that fell to -9 from -7 in June, continuing a string of ongoing declines in that sector. Construction also fell to -3 from -2 in June, continuing a series of slides for that sector. The services sector was unchanged at a reading of +6 that it had fallen to in June from a value of +7 in May - this continues a series of low or slipping readings for the services sector. Month-to-month retailing improved slightly, rising to a -5 reading from -6 in June, bringing it back to its May level of -5. Consumer confidence also improved to -15.1 from -16.1 in June; there is a series of small improvements there as well in eight of the last nine months.

On balance, sentiment is slipping; however, there are several key sectors that are showing some signs of stability, recovery, or less slippage overall.

Slippage across countries Looking at the big four economies, there was slippage in Germany and France in July while Italy and Spain showed improvements. In June, there were declines in the big four economies, except for France and the same is true in May, when there were declines in the big four economies excepting France. But declines are posted by the large economies and in all cases where declines are present, they represent drops of 1% or more. In July, both Italy and Spain improve; Spain's improvement is a substantial improvement of 1.3% as Italy ticked higher by only 0.1%. Weakness dominates the large economies, but it has some notable exceptions.

Looking across the whole of the Monetary Union, 18 of 19 members report. In July, 7 members show declines in sentiment; this compares to 13 members showing declines in June, and 14 members showing declines in May. But as we demonstrate above, the largest economies are still showing declines. Germany, the largest EMU economy, logs month-to-month to decline on all three-months. France shows a month-to-month decline only in July, while Italy and Spain show declines in June and May but then rebound in July.

Sector standings The percentile standings by sector show two sectors, retailing and construction, with performance above their historic medians on data since about 1990. However, the overall index has a standing near its lower quartile at a 27.7 percentile standing; the industrial sector has a lower 30th percentile standing, consumer confidence has lower 20th percentile standing while the services sector has a 43-percentile standing.

Standings by country The standing data by countries show that among the eighteen countries, only four have readings that are above their historic medians. Those four are Cyprus with a 62.7 percentile standing, Malta at a 79th percentile standing, Greece with an 89-percentile standing, and Italy with the 57-percentile standing. For the remaining countries, the standings are much lower with the highest country percentile standings being Spain at a 44-percentile standing and Portugal at about a 40-percentile standing. Only Luxembourg (3.3%) and Estonia (5.7%) log single-digit standings. There are a number of countries that have standings between the 10th and 20th percentiles including Austria, Belgium, Finland, the Netherlands, Slovenia, and Slovakia… as well as Germany. Nine countries stand in the lower one-fifth of their historic queue of data compared to only one in the top one fifth of its historic queue.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Jul 26 2023
Money and Credit Growth Plunge in EMU and Money Weakness Globally
Money growth in the European Monetary Union continues to contract and the pace of contraction appears to be stabilized. Over 3 months the European Monetary Union M2 measure declines at a 1.8% annual rate; this compares to a decline of 1.9% at an annual rate over 6 months and to a decline of 0.2% over 12 months. The pace of decline has stepped up from 12-months to 6-months and then from 6-months to 3-months it has stabilized.

Credit metrics, however, continue to weaken at a faster pace. Credit to residents falls at a 1.3% annual rate over 3 months, compared to a drop at a 0.3% annual rate over 6 months and an increase at a 1.3% annual rate over 12 months. In comparison, of course, there has been much faster growth over the previous two and three years.

Private credit growth falls at a 1.1% annual rate over 3 months after logging flat performance over 6 months and rising by 1.5% over 12 months; it is more than twice that pace over the previous two- and three- years.

EMU money and credit growth assessments in real terms Money: Reassessing all these growth rates by incorporating inflation and calculating real rates of change that take out the inflation effect, leaves us with money supply growth falling at a 4.5% annual rate over 3 months, slowing from a 5.1% annual rate over 6 months, and that in turn slowed from a 5.4% annual rate over 12 months. These metrics continue the declines in real balances reported over two years and three years. However, over two years and three years, the rate of decline is at a slower pace than it has been recently. On balance, there is a slight slowing in real M2 growth; at this point, it's still only slight backing off and the 3-month growth rate is still -4.5%.

Credit: The profiles for credit growth are more mixed with credit to residents falling at a 4% annual rate over 3 months following a 3.5% annual decline rate over 6 months and falling at a 4.1% annual rate over 12 months. All of these are faster declining growth rates than the declines over two and three years. Private credit shows much the same kind of pattern with a 3.8% annual decline rate over 3 months, a slightly reduced 3.3% decline rate over 6 months but then a stepped-up 3.9% decline rate over 12 months. These compare to lesser rates of decline over the last two and three years.

The bottom line for the European Monetary Union is that money and credit growth is slow or slowing when recast in terms of real balances or real credit. Declines appear to be a little bit flatter and there appears to be some modest deceleration underway. However, in the big picture, we still have money and credit declining and so these are contractionary policy forces that add to the European Central Bank’s rate-hiking way.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Germany| Jul 25 2023
IFO Weakening Trend Still in Force
IFO climate is changing…for the worse! The IFO climate gauge for Germany weakened month-to-month but the all-sector reading fell to -18.2 in July from -14.7 in June. Current conditions also stepped back in July with the all-sector reading at 8.1 compared to June’s 13.5. The expectations index weakened marginally with July falling to -25.0 compared to June’s -24.3. The IFO survey falls over each of the three broad categories and the weakness in each category is shared across each one of the industry components. There are five separate industry readings for the three survey concepts implying 15 observations overall for July. Among the 15 observations, all of them weaken month-to-month except for retailing under current conditions and services under expectations.

The chart tracks a wild IFO ride The chart shows the roller coaster ride that the IFO survey concepts have been on since COVID struck. 2020 brought a sharp down move to each of the three IFO concepts of climate, current conditions, and expectations. They rebounded through mid-2021 and then underwent a slight deterioration until early 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. At that point, another relatively steep drop in the components was recorded, taking some of them back down to lower readings than had been experienced in the depths of the Covid situation. However, after bottoming out in late 2022, these industry metrics staged a recovery into early 2023 and now that recovery is giving way to a series of weaker readings over the past three or four months depending on which of the IFO concepts we track.

Climate Climate weakens broadly with weaker reading in July than in June across all the categories and with net negative readings in all the industries except services; that industry posts a +0.9 reading but still marks a decline from its value in June. The queue rankings of these readings are telling, with all the industry level rankings below their respective 50th percentiles, marking them as below their historic medians back to 1991. The all-sector climate reading has an 11.7 percentile rank, marking it as weaker less than 12% of the time; among industries the strongest reading is construction with a 40.5 percentile standing and in retailing with a 32.7 percentile standing- and those are both weak.

Current conditions The current conditions index fell month-to-month to 8.1 in July from 13.5 in June. It weakens across all industries except retailing, where the July reading of -2.3 is stronger than the June reading of -4.0. However, the rankings for the current index are weak; two of them are above the 50th percentile: retailing has a 65.7 percentile standing and construction has a 60.6 percentile standing. Manufacturing, wholesaling, and services all have standings below the 50th percentile but the all-sector current index is clocking an 18.8 percentile standing. Interestingly, the 18.8 percentile standing appears relatively strong compared to the sector rankings: there's only one sector standing slightly weaker than that (services at 17.3%). But this phenomenon reflects the unusual coincidence of all the industries being relatively weak at the same time.

Expectations While the current index in July shows firmer readings than either the climate or the expectations sectors, the fact that the current economy is least impacted is only one aspect of the German situation. The counterpart is that expectations are extremely weak as the all-sector reading for July has a 6.3 percentile ranking with manufacturing at a 3.5 percentile ranking and with wholesaling at a 2.7 percentile ranking. The strongest sector ranking in July comes from services with an 8.7 percentile ranking. Deterioration is across the board except for the services sector that has a -14.1 reading in July, slightly higher than its -15.4 reading in June. However, the weakness and expectations are clear, severe, and broad.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Europe| Jul 24 2023
Flash PMIs Reconfirm Return of the Downtrend; Still No ‘Final Word’ on Inflation...
Flash S&P PMI survey data for July show broad weakening across the large industrial countries that are early reporters to this survey. Germany and France show month-to-month weakness in their composite indexes as well as both components; this weakness is echoed by the European Monetary Union aggregate that weakens in its composite as well as in its two components. The U.K. shows a weaker composite and weakness in its two components; Japan shows an unchanged composite with slightly weaker components. The U.S. shows a weaker composite with weaker services reading juxtaposed with a stronger (but still contracting) manufacturing reading.

Return of the downtrend The chart at the top shows that revival had been in play for the services sector but now that is in the past; services, clearly, for several months, have returned to a downtrend. Manufacturing remains on a steady, slow, but clearly deteriorating path. At the end of 2022, manufacturing went through a brief episode when declines abated; the index stabilized. But it's now clearly back on the move and in the ‘weakening’ category.

Sequential patterns in data The sequential patterns in the data in recent months show a clear tendency to weaken in the month-to-month changes across all the sectors in all the countries among the early reporters. There are six countries and three readings for each. Among the 18 readings, in May seven show period-to-period strength, in June only one reading shows strengthening, in July only manufacturing in the U.S. strengthened while in Japan the composite was unchanged. The encroachment of weakening conditions is clear.

The ebb and flow; flows then ebbs Over broader 12-month to 6-month to 3-month horizons, the opposite trend to strengthening conditions is still more common. These calculations are from averages on only finalized data, meaning the data are up-to-date though June. Of 18 readings, 12 show strengthening over three months, 13 show strengthening over six months and only 2 show strengthening over 12 months compared to 12-months ago. The table most clearly shows a transition for trends is progress. From 12-month to 6-month and 3-month, a rebound is in progress through June data. That is turning to decay in the more up-to-date monthly data. These trends correspond well to the various reports we have seen that have shown resiliency in economies despite central banks globally hiking interest rates.

Opinions vs. facts Whatever your mindset, still worried about recession, thinking central banks have done too much, or not enough, the data show a weakening in progress following unexpected strengthening. The queue standings that rank the PMI diffusion levels over a span since January 2019, shows all readings are below their respective medians on this timeline except Japan, where the composite and service sector readings are still relatively strong.

Rankings mostly range from weak to much weaker The average composite ranking in the table is 32.1%. The average manufacturing ranking is 8.4% and the average services sector ranking is 41.8% (all below 50%; all below their respective medians). The EU and Germany are logging their weakest manufacturing readings of the period while the French and U.K. manufacturing sectors log lower 2-percentile standings. Manufacturing is clearly and broadly exceptionally weak. Services rankings range from an unusually strong 86-percentile in Japan to the 35th percentile in the EMU and in the U.S. Yet, only the services sector in France has a raw diffusion value below 50, indicating sector contraction. And France has been buffeted by a series of labor and political actions that have interrupted activity.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief