U.S. Durable Goods Orders Register a Notable Decline in November
Summary
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Sizable gains and declines in orders among industries.
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Nondefense aircraft orders post marked drop, but shipments advance.
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Orders for computers & electronic equipment also rise.
Manufacturers tallied a 2.1% decline in new orders for durable goods in November (6.2% y/y) according to the latest Census Bureau data, after a 0.7% increase in October. That earlier tally was revised from a 1.0% advance reported initially. The Action Economics survey had projected November's move to be a 1.0% decrease.
The November decline in total new orders reflects a notable mix among industries. The largest decline was in nondefense aircraft, -57.3% (-8.2% y/y) after a 4.5% rise in October; defense aircraft orders were down 8.6% in the month (+9.2% y/y) after an 18.2% advance in October. There were also declines in primary metals orders, down 0.4% (1.9% y/y) following October's 0.7% decrease, and in motor vehicles and parts, down 0.07% (+14.1% y/y) after October's 0.8% increase. But November had gains in orders in several sectors: computers and electronic products, +0.6% (1.7% y/y) following a decrease of 0.2% in October, electrical equipment, 0.2% (+4.5% y/y) after October's 0.1% decrease, fabricated metals, 0.1% +3.0% y/y) after being unchanged in October, and “other durable goods,” 0.2% (+3.0%) following a 0.2% decrease in October. Total capital goods orders fell 5.5% (+5.2% y/y) in November following a 1.4% increase in October.
Even as new orders for nondefense aircraft dropped, that industry's shipments gained in November, rising 5.4% (+40.7% y/y) after increasing 2.2% in October. Total shipments of durable goods rose 0.2% (+8.8% y/y) after 0.4% in October, and total capital goods shipments rose 0.6% (+11.6% y/y) after 1.2% in October. Shipments of nondefense capital goods gained 0.8% (+12.8% y/y) in November following 1.6% the month before.
Manufacturers' orders and shipments of durable goods, as well as nondurable goods, are available in Haver's USECON database. Unfilled orders and inventories are also included. The Action Economics forecast data are in the AS1REPNA database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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