U.S. Durable Goods Orders Jump in November after October Fall
Summary
- Nondefense aircraft orders rebound after October drop.
- Defense goods orders fall after October surge.
- Durable goods shipments up; nondurable goods shipments flat.
New orders for durable goods rose 5.4% in November (+9.5% y/y), basically reversing October’s 5.1% drop, which is revised from 5.4% reported last month. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected November’s increase to be 2.2%.
Transportation equipment orders were up 15.3% in November (+25.5% y/y) following October’s drop of 13.4%. The November amount included a 44.5% increase in nondefense aircraft orders and a 2.8% increase in motor vehicles and parts (-0.2% y/y). The latter advance partially reversed a 4.1% decrease in October’s orders for motor vehicles.
Durable goods orders excluding transportation rose 0.5% (2.0% y/y) in November after a 0.3% decrease in October. Within that group, new orders for computers and electronic products increased 0.3% last month (+3.6% y/y) after edging down 0.1% in October. New orders for machinery were also up 0.3% in November (-0.6% y/y) following a 0.8% decline in October. Electrical equipment orders advanced 1.3% last month (+8.5% y/y) after falling 2.4% in October. Fabricated metal orders were unchanged (+1.7% y/y) last month after decreasing 0.5% in October. Orders for defense goods dropped 11.0% in November (-1.4% y/y) following an 18.0% surge in October.
Nondefense capital goods orders rose 17.1% in November (+30.9% y/y), reversing a 14.1% fall in October. As noted above, this November advance was concentrated in aircraft; other capital goods industry orders rose 0.8% (+2.0% y/y)) after falling 0.6% in October.
Shipments of all manufactured goods increased 0.5% (-0.4% y/y) last month after decreasing 1.3% in October. Nondurable goods shipments ticked down 0.04% (-2.5% y/y) in November following a 1.8% decline in October. Durable goods industry shipments were up 1.0% last month (+1.85% y/y) after a decrease of 0.8% in October. Shipments of transportation equipment increased 2.3% (2.6% y/y) in November, exactly reversing a 2.3% decrease the month before. Excluding transportation, durable goods industry shipments rose 0.5% in November after decreasing 0.2% in October.
Unfilled orders for durable goods rose 1.3% last month after a 0.4% increase in October. The November amount was up 8.8% from a year ago. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders edged down just 0.1% last month (-0.7% y/y) following a similar 0.1% decrease in October.
Inventories of all manufacturing industries ticked up 0.1% (-0.2% y/y) in November after being unchanged in October. Inventories of durable goods industries were also up 0.1% last month (+1.1% y/y) following a 0.2% increase in October. And excluding transportation, other durable goods industries also saw their inventories inch up 0.1% (+0.8% y/y) in November, although they were basically unchanged in October. Inventories of nondurable goods industries similarly rose 0.1% in November, although they had fallen 0.3% in October and the November amount was down 2.2% from a year ago.
Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable goods, as well as nondurable goods, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau; they are available in Haver’s USECON database. Unfilled orders and inventories are also included. The Action Economics forecast data are in the AS1REPNA database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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