U.S. Advance Trade Deficit Widens Moderately in October
Summary
- Exports decline while imports were flat.
- Sizable reductions in exports of consumer goods, autos and “other” goods.
- Imports of capital goods up noticeably while autos and consumer goods decreased.
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods widened moderately in October to $89.8 billion from $86.8 billion in September. The October result was thus somewhat wider than the Action Economics Forecast Survey estimate of $85.4 billion.
The trade deficit in goods increased in October due to a decrease in exports, which fell 1.7% to $170.8 billion (-1.6% y/y) from $173.8 billion in September, when they had increased 2.9%. The October decline included several of the end-use categories. Consumer goods exports declined 9.1% from September, “other” exports fell 9.0%, autos, parts & engines were down 7.3% and foods, feeds & beverages decreased 1.6%. Industrial supplies & materials did increase by 1.5% and capital goods ex autos rose 0.7% in the month.
Imports were almost flat in October, as they were $260.65 billion (-3.9% y/y), up just barely from September’s $260.61 billion. There were increases in capital goods imports in October, 2.5%, and food, feed & beverages, up 1.0%. Autos & parts saw the largest decrease, 2.3%, “other” imports were down 0.8% and the industrial supplies and consumer goods categories were each down 0.7% in October.
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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