Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
| Nov 29 2023

U.S. Advance Trade Deficit Widens Moderately in October

  • Exports decline while imports were flat.
  • Sizable reductions in exports of consumer goods, autos and “other” goods.
  • Imports of capital goods up noticeably while autos and consumer goods decreased.

The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods widened moderately in October to $89.8 billion from $86.8 billion in September. The October result was thus somewhat wider than the Action Economics Forecast Survey estimate of $85.4 billion.

The trade deficit in goods increased in October due to a decrease in exports, which fell 1.7% to $170.8 billion (-1.6% y/y) from $173.8 billion in September, when they had increased 2.9%. The October decline included several of the end-use categories. Consumer goods exports declined 9.1% from September, “other” exports fell 9.0%, autos, parts & engines were down 7.3% and foods, feeds & beverages decreased 1.6%. Industrial supplies & materials did increase by 1.5% and capital goods ex autos rose 0.7% in the month.

Imports were almost flat in October, as they were $260.65 billion (-3.9% y/y), up just barely from September’s $260.61 billion. There were increases in capital goods imports in October, 2.5%, and food, feed & beverages, up 1.0%. Autos & parts saw the largest decrease, 2.3%, “other” imports were down 0.8% and the industrial supplies and consumer goods categories were each down 0.7% in October.

The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.

  • Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo.   At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm.   During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.

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