Global| Sep 24 2002Weekly Chain Store Sales Slump
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Chain store sales slumped 1.7% last week according to the BTM-UBSW survey. The week-to-week drop in sales was the largest since one in late April. It followed two weeks during which sales were virtually unchanged. Sales in the first [...]
Chain store sales slumped 1.7% last week according to the BTM-UBSW survey. The week-to-week drop in sales was the largest since one in late April. It followed two weeks during which sales were virtually unchanged.
Sales in the first three weeks of September were 0.6% below the August average. August sales fell 0.9% versus July.
During the last five years there has been a 44% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in chain store sales as reported by BTM-UBSW and the level of consumer confidence as reported by the Conference Board.
| BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100) | 9/21/02 | 9/14/02 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 404.2 | 411.2 | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 6.7% |
by Tom Moeller September 24, 2002
The Conference Board’s Index of Consumer Confidence fell slightly less than expected in September, to 93.3. Consensus expectations were for a reading in the 92.0-93.0 range. August's level was revised up to 94.5 from 93.5 reported last month.
The decline reflected a lower reading of the present situation, which fell for the sixth month this year. The expectations component of confidence rose 1.0%, the first gain since a slight 0.1% up tick in May.
The decline in Consumer Confidence was in line with the 1.6% m/m decline in the Consumer Sentiment reading from the University of Michigan.
During the last five years there has been an 88% correlation between the level of Consumer Confidence and the y/y percent change in payroll employment.
The Conference Board's survey is conducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
| Conference Board | Sept | Aug | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence | 93.3 | 94.5 | -18.0% | 106.6 | 139.0 | 135.3 |
by Tom Moeller September 24, 2002
The Federal Reserve left the Federal Funds Target Rate unchanged at 1.75%, as expected.
The press release, which accompanied the Fed’s action, contained the following statement. "Over time, the current accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with still robust underlying growth in productivity, should be sufficient to foster an improving business climate. However, considerable uncertainty persists about the extent and timing of the expected pickup in production and employment owing in part to the emergence of heightened geopolitical risks."
The complete text of the Fed's latest press release can be viewed here.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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