Global| Aug 29 2003Volatile Japanese Industrial Production Appears to Turn Positive
Summary
Industrial production in Japan rose 0.5% in July, turning up after a 1.2% decline in June. Analysts and market participants in Japan were encouraged with the July performance; they had, on average, projected a smaller 0.2% increase. [...]
Industrial production in Japan rose 0.5% in July, turning up after a 1.2% decline in June. Analysts and market participants in Japan were encouraged with the July performance; they had, on average, projected a smaller 0.2% increase. The July gain was led by nonferrous metals, electronics, ceramics and "other" manufacturing. Most machinery and transport equipment segments saw declining output.
Month-to-month swings in Japan’s industrial production are wide, making it problematical to analyze the rigor in two or three month movements, let alone a single month. Some trend becomes discernible at four months, though, as seen in the accompanying chart. That shows an 0.11% average increase in the four months to July, the first positive reading in that moving average since January, carrying the suggestion that the industrial sector is at least stabilizing in Japan, if not actually starting to grow again.
Separately, two more GDP reports for the second quarter appeared today, 29 August. These too showed mixed performances. Canada saw growth slip into negative territory, at -0.1% (quarterly rate from first quarter). Domestic demand was firm, however, with a 0.7% increase. The trade accounts saw an influx of imports, which grew 1.4% on the quarter, swamping a 0.6% rise in exports to make a net drag on total GDP. In Hong Kong, GDP dropped by a sizable 3.4%, pushed lower by declines in private consumption, fixed investment and net exports. This last resulted from a 2.8% drop in exports after a sustained five-quarter advance; imports also fell, by 1.9%, shrinking the trade balance to HK$28.2 billion from HK$33.5 billion.
| Japan: Industrial Production, %Changes | July 2003 | June 2003 | May 2003 | Dec/Dec|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | ||||
| Month/Month | 0.5 | -1.2 | 2.6 | 5.5 | -13.7 | 6.0 |
| 4-Month Moving Avg | 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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