Global| Nov 21 2003Venezuela Struggles to Recover from Early 2003 Oil Strike
Summary
The entire Venezuelan economy suffered from last winter's oil industry strike, which lasted from December through February. Its impact on GDP in Q4 2002 and Q1 2003 is readily evident in the chart nearby. The latest data, issued today [...]
The entire Venezuelan economy suffered from last winter's oil industry strike, which lasted from December through February. Its impact on GDP in Q4 2002 and Q1 2003 is readily evident in the chart nearby.
The latest data, issued today by the Central Bank of Venezuela for Q3 shows a quick rebound in overall activity, but a level of GDP still more than 7% less than the pre-strike amount in Q3 2002.
Petroleum activity weakened anew in Q3, but non-petroleum sectors are continuing a recovering phase. A good portion of that amelioration has taken place in social services, however, and while activity in the core of private industry, especially construction, manufacturing, and trade, appears to be picking up, it remains well below pre-strike volumes.
At the same time, better performances in Venezuela's foreign trade accounts appears to be giving an assist to the overall economy. The balances of trade in both petroleum and non-petroleum products have improved markedly since strike- ridden Q1, and international reserves have increased to $18.4 billion at the end of September, the second highest month on record (the highest was $18.9 billion in November 1997).
| Percent Changes | Year/Year 4th Qtr/4th Qtr||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3rd Qtr 2003 | 2nd Qtr 2003 | 1st Qtr 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | |
| GDP (not seasonally adj.) | -7.1 | -9.4 | -27.7 | -16.7 | +0.9 | +5.7 |
| Petroleum Activity | -9.1 | -2.9 | -47.2 | -25.5 | -5.0 | +7.7 |
| Non-petroleum Activity | -6.0 | -10.1 | -18.9 | -12.4 | +3.1 | +4.9 |
| Billions of US $ | 3rd Qtr 2003 | 2nd Qtr 2003 | 1st Qtr 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
| Current Account Balance | +$2.8 | +$3.3 | +$0.8 | +$7.4 | +$2.1 | +$12.1 |
| Reserves, End of Period | $18.4 | $16.9 | $13.7 | $12.0 | $12.3 | $15.9 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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