Global| Apr 23 2004UK GDP Growth Eases as Industrial Production Falls; Services Remain Vigorous
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Growth in the UK economy moderated a bit in Q1 2004, according to the "Preliminary" release of GDP today. Total GDP at market prices gained 0.6%, somewhat slower than the 0.9% advance in Q4 2003. For the industrial sector, this meant [...]
Growth in the UK economy moderated a bit in Q1 2004, according to the "Preliminary" release of GDP today. Total GDP at market prices gained 0.6%, somewhat slower than the 0.9% advance in Q4 2003.
For the industrial sector, this meant a steeper decline. That portion of the economy, which includes manufacturing, mining and energy output, has shown an increase in only one quarter since the end of 2000.
Services, by contrast, continue to grow vigorously, although not quite as fast in the first quarter as the fourth quarter's full 1.0%. However, within that broad segment, the subcategory of distribution, food and hotel services and repair services, expanded by 1.2%, its largest advance since the summer of 2002.
In this preliminary release, there is little further detail. But overall, the UK economy, driven by service sector expansion, is extending its healthy growth track, not as strongly as the late 1990s, but firmer, surely, than the recession plagued period two-to-three years ago.Note: the UK Office of National Statistics cautions that early data responses were unusually low in March, so these figures may be subject to more revision than normal.
| Q1 2004 | Q4 2003 | Year/Year | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Chained Volume Index, 2000=100 | 108.1 | 107.4 | 104.9* | 106.1 | 103.8 | 102.1 |
| % Change | 0.6 | 0.9 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Industrial Production % Change | -0.5 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -2.7 | -1.6 |
| Service Industries % Change | 0.8 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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