Global| Sep 11 2019U.S. Wholesale Inventories & Sales Rise Moderately
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Wholesale inventories increased 0.2% during July (7.1% y/y) after a 0.1% dip in June, revised from unchanged. The gain matched expectations in the Informa Global Markets Survey. Durable goods inventories eased 0.2% (+8.7% y/y) in July [...]
Wholesale inventories increased 0.2% during July (7.1% y/y) after a 0.1% dip in June, revised from unchanged. The gain matched expectations in the Informa Global Markets Survey.
Durable goods inventories eased 0.2% (+8.7% y/y) in July after a 0.1% uptick. Machinery inventories, the largest sector, fell 0.2% (10.6% y/y), while vehicle inventories, the second largest group, rose 0.5% (+19.5% y/y). Electrical equipment inventories declined 1.5% (2.7% y/y). Inventories of nondurable goods rose 0.8% (4.4% y/y) after a 0.4% decline. Drug inventories, which make up a quarter of nondurable inventories, rebounded 1.6% (3.7% y/y) after June's sharp decline. Apparel inventories declined 0.3% (+11.8% y/y), off for the fourth straight month. Inventories of chemicals declined 1.6% (-0.3% y/y) and the value of petroleum inventories rose 2.5% (0.6% y/y).
Wholesale sales improved 0.3% July (0.0% y/y) following three straight months of decline. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.1% uptick.
Durable goods sales declined 0.7% (-2.7% y/y) after falling 0.2% in June. Electrical equipment sales, the largest sector, fell 1.1% (-7.0% y/y), down sharply for four straight months. Professional and commercial equipment shipments, which includes computers, rose 0.2 % (10.3% y/y). Motor vehicle sales improved 0.3% (5.3% y/y). Nondurable product sales increased 1.2% (3.4% y/y) after two months of decline. Drug sales, which are nearly the largest category of nondurable sales, gained 0.7% (9.2% y/y) while apparel sales declined 1.1% (-0.1% y/y), off for three consecutive months. Chemical shipments fell 2.0% (+0.2% y/y) but grocery product sales rose 1.2% (7.7% y/y). Petroleum product deliveries eased 0.1% (7.0% y/y), the fourth straight monthly decline.
The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio at the wholesale level held steady at a heightened 1.36 for the third consecutive month.
The durable goods I/S ratio increased to 1.77, the highest level since 2009. The machinery ratio rose to 2.78, while motor vehicles edged up to 1.78, nearly a ten-year high. The I/S ratio for nondurable goods was unchanged at 0.99. The paper industry I/S ratio held at a record 1.23. The drug industry I/S ratio remained low at 1.06 while the chemical industry ratio was steady at 1.14. The petroleum industry I/S ratio gained to 0.38.
The wholesale trade figures and oil prices are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure for inventories is contained in the MMSAMER database. Expectations for sales are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Wholesale Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | July | June | May | July Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.9 |
| Sales | 0.3 | -0.3 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 6.3 | -1.2 |
| I/S Ratio | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.27 (July '18) | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.35 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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