Global| Jul 29 2010U.S. Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Slip
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
It was another humdrum indication of an uninspiring labor market. Initial claims for jobless insurance ticked lower last week to 457,000 from 468,000 the prior week, revised from 464,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims [...]
It was another humdrum indication of an uninspiring labor market. Initial
claims for jobless insurance ticked lower last week to 457,000 from 468,000 the
prior week, revised from 464,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims
slipped to 452,500. That's a level it has approximated since March though these
figures are down from the recession peak of 651,000 reached in March of 2009.
The latest weekly figure was lower than Consensus expectations for 460,000
claims.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance during the latest week rose to 4.565M but were off by one-third from the June '09 peak. The overall decline is a function of the improved job market but also reflects the exhaustion of 26 weeks of unemployment benefits. The four-week average of continuing claims rose slightly off the cycle low to 4.581M. This series dates back to 1966.
Ongoing claims do not reflect those who receive extended benefits. Extended benefits for unemployment insurance fell sharply to 406,842 but have been moving erratically sideways since late-May. These figures do not include the greatly diminished 3,253,636 benefit recipients under state administered "EUC" emergency programs, but paid for by the Federal government.
The insured unemployment rate rose to 3.6% from an unrevised 3.5% during the prior week. It reached a high of 4.9% during May of 2009. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the level of the insured unemployment rate and the overall rate of unemployment published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending July 10 were in Puerto Rico (6.9%), Pennsylvania (5.1), Oregon (5.0), New Jersey (4.8), Nevada (4.6), Wisconsin (4.6), California (4.5), Connecticut (4.5), Massachusetts (4.5), and Alaska (4.4). The lowest insured unemployment rates were in Virginia (1.9), Wyoming (2.1), Texas (2.3), Maine (2.7), Tennessee (2.9), Georgia (3.2), Maryland (3.2), Florida (3.3), Ohio (3.6), New York (3.7) and North Carolina (4.0). These data are not seasonally adjusted but the overall insured unemployment rate is.
The unemployment insurance claims data is available in Haver's WEEKLY database and the state data is in the REGIONW database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 07/24/10 | 07/17/10 | 07/10/10 | Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 457 | 468 | 427 | -20.9% | 572 | 419 | 321 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 4,565 | 4,484 | -25.6 | 5,809 | 3,340 | 2,549 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 3.6 | 3.5 | 4.6 (7/2009) | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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