GlobalThey've done this before. Initial claims for jobless insurance rose a slight 6,000 to 391,000,000 last week from 395,000 (revised from 391,000). Together, the two numbers were near the lowest of 2011. However, this reaching for a low was done earlier. Twice before this year, claims declined then backed up to leave in place a trend level near 415,000 since February. The latest figure was below Consensus expectations for 410,000 claims, according to the Action Economics survey. The 4-week moving average of claims slipped to 414,000. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell to 3.700M in the September 24th week. It also has been trending sideways since early this year. The insured unemployment rate slipped to 2.9%. By state, the rate varied with Virginia (1.4%), Oklahoma (1.7%), Texas (1.8%), Ohio (1.8%), Colorado (2.0%) and Tennessee (2.1%) at the low end of the range. The rates in Illinois (3.0%), Connecticut (3.2%), Nevada (3.3%), New Jersey (3.4%, California (3.5%) and Pennsylvania (3.9%) were at the high end.
The grand total of those receiving unemployment insurance, including extended programs run by the states and the federal government, was 6.862M as of September 17, down by one-quarter y/y. Regular extended benefits, with eligibility dependent on conditions in individual states, recovered the prior week's decline with a rise to 524,685 (-48.1% y/y) and those on the special "EUC 2008" programs slipped to 3.027M (-26.6% y/y).
Data on weekly unemployment insurance programs are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, including the seasonal factor series, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states, including the unemployment rates that determine individual state eligibility for the extended benefits programs and specific "tiers" of the emergency program, are in REGIONW, a database of weekly data for states and various regional divisions. Action Economics estimates are in AS1REPNA.
Unemployment Insurance and the Great Recession from the University of California, Berkeley and NBER can be found here http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/Programs/ES/BPEA/2011_fall_bpea_papers/2011_fall_bpea_conference_rothstein.pdf
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 9/31/11 | 9/24/11 | 9/17/11 | Y/Y% | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 401 | 395 | 428 | -10.7 | 461 | 577 | 413 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,700 | 3,752 | -16.9 | 4,544 | 5,807 | 3,338 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate(%) | -- | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.5 (9/10) |
3.6 | 4.4 | 2.5 |
| Total "All Programs" (NSA) | -- | -- | 6.862M | -24.3 | 9.850M | 9.163M | 3.903M |
