Global| Jul 22 2010U.S. Weekly Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Jump
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
An earlier sign of job market improvement was fleeting. That's the message from the report that initial claims for jobless insurance jumped to 464,000 and more-than-reversed the prior week's decline. The earlier week's figure was [...]
An earlier sign of job market improvement was fleeting. That's the message
from the report that initial claims for jobless insurance
jumped to 464,000 and more-than-reversed the prior week's decline. The earlier
week's figure was 427,000, initially reported at 429,000. The latest level was
higher than Consensus expectations for 445,000 claims. The four-week moving
average of initial claims rose to 456,000. These figures are down from the
recession peak of 651,000 reached in March of 2009.
The latest figure covers the survey week for July nonfarm payrolls and claims fell 12,000 (2.5%) from survey week in June. During the last ten years there has been a 78% correlation between the level of claims an the m/m change in employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance during the latest week fell to 4.487M and was off by one-third from the June '09 peak. The overall decline is a function of the improved job market but also reflects the exhaustion of 26 weeks of unemployment benefits. The four-week average of continuing claims rose slightly off the cycle low to 4.581M. This series dates back to 1966.
Ongoing claims do not reflect those who receive extended benefits. Extended benefits for unemployment insurance rose to 445,394 and more-than-reversed the prior week's decline. These figures do not include the diminished 3,483,940 benefit recipients (+28.7% y/y) under state administered "EUC" emergency programs, but paid for by the Federal government.
The insured unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from an unrevised 3.7% during the prior week. It reached a high of 4.9% during May of 2009. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the level of the insured unemployment rate and the overall rate of unemployment published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending July 3 were in Puerto Rico (7.0 %), Oregon (4.9), Pennsylvania (4.8), Alaska (4.5), Nevada (4.5), Connecticut (4.4), Massachusetts (4.4), New Jersey (4.4), California (4.1), and Wisconsin (4.1). The lowest insured unemployment rates were in Virginia (1.8), Wyoming (2.1), Texas (2.3), Maine (2.6), Tennessee (2.7), Georgia (3.1), Maryland (3.1), Ohio (3.4), Florida (3.5), New York (3.6) and Massachusetts (4.4). These data are not seasonally adjusted but the overall insured unemployment rate is.
The unemployment insurance claims data is available in Haver's WEEKLY database and the state data is in the REGIONW database.
Do labor market activities help predict inflation? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 07/17/10 | 07/10/10 | 07/03/10 | Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 464 | 427 | 458 | -17.7% | 572 | 419 | 321 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 4,487 | 4,710 | -26.7 | 5,809 | 3,340 | 2,549 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 3.5 | 3.7 | 4.6 (7/2009) | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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