GlobalThe U.S. foreign trade deficit deepened during November for the first time in five months. The shortfall rose to $47.8B from a revised $43.3B in October, initially reported as $43.5B. Expectations had been for $44.7B according to Action Economics. Exports declined 0.9% (+10.3% y/y) while imports rose 1.3% (+12.7% y/y). In chained 2005 dollars, the overall deficit in goods deepened to $47.5B; real exports fell 1.5% (+6.1% y/y) while real imports increased 1.3% (4.9% y/y).
Overall exports slipped 0.9% led by a 1.2% decline (+11.2% y/y) in goods exports. Exports of industrial supplies & materials slumped 3.8% (+17.9% y/y) but nonauto consumer goods jumped 5.4% (4.8% y/y). Capital goods imports slipped 0.6% (+9.2% y/y) while exports of automotive vehicles fell 1.9% (+17.5% y/y). Services exports were roughly unchanged (8.1% y/y). Travel exports fell 2.2% (+8.1% y/y) as fewer individuals visited the U.S. and passenger fares also fell 2.2% (+16.1% y/y).
Total imports rose 1.3% in November as goods imports increased 1.9% (14.0% y/y). Imports of industrial supplies gained 4.5% (25.8% y/y) as oil prices rose but imports of nonauto consumer goods imports fell 1.6% (+4.1% y/y). Imports of capital goods inched up 0.3% (8.7% y/y) while auto imports rose 3.8% (15.0% y/y). Imports of services slipped 0.4% (6.1% y/y). Travel imports fell 1.6% (+3.8% y/y) as fewer U.S. citizens traveled abroad while passenger fares fell 0.6% (+6.9% y/y).
The value of November's petroleum imports jumped 9.3% (37.7% y/y with higher prices. In constant dollars, petroleum imports increased 5.8% and by 3.9% y/y. The cost of crude oil per barrel rose to $102.50, its highest level since September, 2008. In October, 2010, the average price hit a low $74.21. During November, the quantity of energy-related petroleum imports rose 4.1% y/y.
By country, the November goods trade deficit with mainland China lessened m/m to $26.9B. That was increased from $25.1B twelve months earlier. Imports from China increased 6.5% y/y to $36.8B while U.S. exports rose 5.1% y/y to $9.9B. With Japan, the deficit slipped to $6.2B as exports rose 16.7% y/y and imports rose 10.5% y/y. The deficit with the European Union deepened to $9.7B with a 4.8% y/y rise in exports to Europe and a 12.6% jump in imports.
The international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics consensus survey, which is carried in the AS1REPNA
| Foreign Trade | Nov | Oct | Sep | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Trade Deficit | $47.8B | $43.3B | $44.2B | $38.8B (10/10) |
$500.0B | $381.3B | $698.3B |
| Exports-Goods & Services | $177.8 | $179.4B | $180.6B | $166.1B | $1,838B | $1,575.0B | $1,842.7B |
| % Change | -0.9 | -0.7 | 1.4 | 10.3 | 16.7 | -14.5 | 11.4 |
| Imports-Goods & Services | $225.6 | $222.6B | $224.8B | $200.0B | $2,333.8B | $1,956.3B | $2,541.0B |
| % Change | 1.3 | -1.0 | 0.6 | 12.7 | 19.5 | -23.0 | 8.1 |
| Petroleum | 9.3 | -5.5 | 1.1 | 37.7 | 32.5 | -44.0 | 37.0 |
| Nonpetroleum goods | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 9.3 | 20.8 | -20.9 | 1.5 |
U.S. Import Prices Slip With Lower Oil Prices
by Tom
Moeller January 13, 2012
U.S. import prices matched expectations and slipped 0.1% last month. That followed a revised 0.8% November gain, initially reported as 0.7%. Year-to-year, higher oil prices and the lower value of the dollar raised prices for imported products by 8.5% y/y. Petroleum prices slipped 0.4% last month but rose one-third versus last year as Brent crude oil slipped to an average $109.60 per barrel. Prices so far this month recovered the December decline but remain down from April high of $112.68. Non-oil import prices fell 0.2% (+3.7% y/y) during December, down for the second consecutive month. The y/y change in non-oil import prices during the last ten years has an 81% inverse correlation with the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies.
Imported food & beverage prices slipped 0.4% last month (+6.3% y/y) while prices for non-oil industrial supplies fell 0.5% (+5.3% y/y). Prices for non-auto consumer goods ticked up 0.2% (3.2% y/y) reflecting no change (3.6% y/y) in household goods. Furniture prices slipped 0.2% (+6.1% y/y) and home entertainment equipment prices rose 0.8% (-6.0% y/y), up m/m for the first monthly gain since 2009. The increase reflected a higher TV costs but they're still off 5.9% y/y. Imported auto prices inched up 0.1% (3.7% y/y) and imported capital goods prices gained 0.2% (0.9% y/y). Computer & peripherals prices rose 0.9% (-4.3% y/y) while excluding computers, capital goods prices were unchanged (3.2% y/y).
U.S. export prices fell 0.5% as agricultural prices dropped 2.6 accompanied by a 0.2% slip in non-agricultural goods (+4.0% y/y). Prices of industrial supplies fell 0.8% but were up 6.9% y/y. Capital goods prices were unchanged (0.7% y/y) for the third consecutive month and nonauto consumer goods prices inched up 0.1% (3.6% y/y). Prices for exported autos & parts slipped 0.1% (+2.6% y/y).
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | -0.1 | 0.8 | -0.4 | 8.5 | 10.9 | 6.9 | -11.5 |
| Petroleum | -0.4 | 3.8 | -0.3 | 27.4 | 36.5 | 28.4 | -35.9 |
| Nonpetroleum | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.4 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.8 | -4.1 |
| Exports - All Commodities | -0.5 | 0.1 | -2.0 | 3.6 | 8.1 | 4.9 | -4.6 |
| Agricultural | -2.6 | 1.7 | -6.5 | 0.8 | 22.3 | 7.9 | -12.8 |
| Nonagricultural | -0.2 | -0.2 | -1.4 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 4.6 | -3.7 |
