Global| Mar 26 2020U.S. Trade Deficit in Goods Shrinks in February
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Advance
Tom Moeller March 26, 2020
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in
goods narrowed to $59.88 billion in February from $65.90 in January. A $63.8
billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Exports of goods increased 0.6% m/m (-1.6% y/y) in February
following a 0.9% decline. The gain was led by a 5.0% increase in the
"other" category which followed a 12.9% decline. Motor vehicles &
parts exports also were strong, posting a 3.2% rise (2.1% y/y) on top of a 7.6%
January increase. Industrial supplies exports rose 1.5% and recaptured the prior
month's decline. Capital goods exports improved 0.5% (-5.6% y/y) following a
2.4% drop. Working the other way were consumer goods exports which fell 4.7%
(-10.0% y/y) after a 0.8% rise. Foods, feeds & beverages exports which fell
0.6% (-0.7% y/y) following a 2.1% rise. Imports of goods fell 2.4% (-7.7% y/y) following a 2.0%
decline as most categories exhibited weakness m/m. Capital goods imports
weakened 6.8% (-11.2% y/y) after slipping 0.8% in January. Industrial supplies
& materials imports fell 3.8% (-10.1% y/y) as oil prices declined. Foods,
feeds & beverages imports were off 3.1% both m/m and y/y following a 4.9%
gain. Consumer goods imports declined 1.8% (-7.4% y/y) after edging 0.7% higher.
Increasing by 4.9% (-4.8% y/y) were auto imports which reversed two months
of decline. Imports of other goods also rose 4.9% (7.9% y/y) and recovered much
of a 13.5% drop during January. The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON
database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey,
which is carried in AS1REPNA.
Advance U.S. Foreign Trade in
Goods (Current Customs Value $)
Feb
Jan
Dec
Feb Y/Y
2019
2018
2017
U.S. Trade Deficit ($ bil.)
59.88
65.90
68.48
70.31
(02/19)852.79
874.81
793.41
Exports (% Chg)
0.6
-0.9
0.4
-1.6
-1.3
7.9
6.4
Imports (% Chg)
-2.4
-2.0
2.9
-7.7
-1.7
8.7
7.4
Kansas City Fed Factory Index Collapses In lockstep with other regional Fed indexes recently
released, the Federal
Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that its reading of manufacturing
business activity plunged to -17 in March following February's improvement to 5.
It was the lowest reading since March 2009, indicating major recession in
the area's factory sector activity. The index of expectations in six months fell
to -19, also the weakest reading in eleven years. The ISM-Adjusted Index fell to 43.1 (NSA) in March. It was
the lowest index level since December 2015 and down from the May 2018 high of
64.2. The current condition components all weakened
this month with new orders, shipments and production each falling sharply. The
employment index fell further into negative territory, nearly touching its March
2009 low. The export measure also reached a record low. The employee workweek
measure fell deeper into negative territory where it's been for five months. On the inflation front, prices received for finished products
turned negative. The fall to -6 compares to +27 in August 2018. The raw materials
prices index hit a four-year low. The index measuring expectations in six months similarly fell
significantly, reflecting sharply lower new orders, shipments and production. The
expected employment measure also collapsed. Expected finished product prices fell sharply along with
expected raw materials prices. The
diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of total respondents
reporting increases minus the percentage reporting declines. The survey includes 93 responses from plants in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma,
Wyoming and northern New Mexico and was conducted mid-month. Data for the Kansas City Fed Survey can be found in Haver's SURVEYS
database.
by Tom
Moeller March 26, 2020
Kansas City Federal Reserve
Manufacturing Survey (SA)
Mar
Feb
Jan
Mar'19
2019
2018
2017
Conditions Versus One Month Ago (%
Balance)
-17
5
-1
9
0
17
14
ISM-Adjusted Composite Index (NSA)
43.1
52.7
48.3
56.4
50.0
58.9
56.7
New Orders Volume
-38
8
-2
3
-3
17
17
Number of Employees
-32
-4
4
12
-1
17
15
Production
-18
8
-4
13
2
19
17
Prices Received for
Finished Product
-6
9
-3
8
7
22
7
Expected Conditions in Six Months
-19
16
14
20
12
28
26
New Orders Volume
-35
21
9
26
17
35
35
Number of Employees
-19
20
20
29
15
33
31
Production
-36
21
23
26
19
40
40
Prices Received for
Finished Product
-10
28
20
36
26
42
27
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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