Global| Nov 15 2010U.S. Retail Spending Increase Is Fourth In A Row
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The consumer indicated that despite a generally cautious mood, wallets were opened last month. Retail spending rose 1.2% during October following a 0.7% increase that was revised from 0.6%. The last was higher than expectations for a [...]
The consumer indicated that despite a generally cautious mood, wallets were opened last month. Retail spending rose 1.2% during October following a 0.7% increase that was revised from 0.6%. The last was higher than expectations for a 0.7% increase. Spending on motor vehicles and parts, for the second month, showed the most pronounced increase. A 5.0% gain in auto spending reflected a 4.2% m/m increase in unit light vehicle sales reported earlier this month. Excluding autos, retail sales rose an expected 0.4%. Minus autos & gasoline retail spending also rose 0.4% despite a 0.8% rise in gasoline sales.
Shopping at building materials and hardware stores led last month's sales gains with a 1.9% rise (12.2% y/y) after two months of 1.3% increase. Apparel store sales followed with a 0.7% gain (3.5% y/y) following declines in five of the prior six months. General merchandise store sales rose just 0.2% (2.0% y/y) after a 0.1% September uptick. Furniture store sales fell 0.7% (+2.9% y/y) following three months of modest gains and sales at electronics appliance stores also fell 0.7% (+3.6% y/y).
Interest in dining out was modest as sales at food service and drinking places increased 0.3% (4.3% y/y). Again, most retail shopping was done on-line. Sales of non-store retailers posted a 0.8% rise (13.5% y/y) after increases of 1.4% and 1.8% during the prior two months.
| Retail Spending (%) | Oct | Sept | Aug | Oct. Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 7.3 | -6.3 | -1.0 | 3.3 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 6.0 | -5.1 | 2.3 | 3.9 |
| Retail Sales | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 7.7 | -7.1 | -1.4 | 3.1 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 14.0 | -12.0 | -13.9 | 0.8 |
| Retail excluding Autos | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 6.2 | -5.1 | 2.3 | 3.9 |
| Gasoline | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 12.3 | -24.7 | 9.9 | 6.8 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 5.1 | -2.4 | 1.0 | 3.3 |
| Food Service | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 5.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
