Global| Aug 12 2016U.S. Retail Sales Remain Unchanged; Non-Auto Sales Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total retail sales & spending at restaurants were virtually unchanged during July (2.3% y/y) following a 0.8% June rise, revised from 0.6%. Consensus expectations had been for 0.4% growth in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Auto [...]
Total retail sales & spending at restaurants were virtually unchanged during July (2.3% y/y) following a 0.8% June rise, revised from 0.6%. Consensus expectations had been for 0.4% growth in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Auto sales supported total spending with a 1.1% rise (2.4% y/y) following a 0.5% increase. The gain compared to a 6.8% jump in unit vehicle sales. Overall retail sales excluding autos declined 0.3% (+2.2% y/y) after an upwardly revised 0.9% increase. A 0.2% gain had been expected.
Lower gasoline prices held back the rise in total sales as gasoline service station sales fell 2.7% (-11.0% y/y), and reversed a 2.2% rise. A 0.5% decline (+3.5% y/y) in purchases of building materials & garden equipment also damped total spending. Excluding these categories, and autos as well, retail sales eased slightly (+3.3% y/y).
Retail sales also eased minimally last month (+1.9% y/y) after a 0.9% gain. Sales excluding autos declined 0.4% (+1.7% y/y) after 1.0% rise. Nonstore retail outlets posted a 1.3% surge (14.1% y/y) in sales, the same as in June. Furniture & home furnishings store sales gained 0.2% (4.3% y/y) following a 1.5% jump. Electronics & appliance store sales eased, however, by 0.1% (-3.8% y/y). Apparel store sales declined 0.5% (-1.2% y/y) after little change, and general merchandise store sales eased 0.1% (-1.1% y/y) following 0.2% rise. Sporting goods store sales declined 2.2% (+2.1% y/y) and reversed a 1.7% increase. Restaurant & drinking establishment sales fell 0.2% (+5.0% y/y) after a 0.3% gain.
In the non-discretionary spending category, health & personal care sore sales gained 0.1% (7.8% y/y) following a 0.9% jump. Food & beverage store sales declined 0.6% (+1.4 y/y).
The retail sales figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (%) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.8 |
| Excluding Autos | -0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 3.6 | 2.7 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline, Building Supplies & Food Services (Control Group) | -0.0 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.9 |
| Retail Sales | -0.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 3.8 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 1.1 | 0.5 | -0.3 | 2.4 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 8.3 |
| Retail Less Autos | -0.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| Gasoline Stations | -2.7 | 2.2 | 1.7 | -11.0 | -19.4 | -2.4 | -1.2 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 3.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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