Global| Dec 13 2007U.S. Retail Sales Beat Expectations, Sales of Discretionary Items Firm
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
November U.S. retail sales doubled expectations for a 0.6% increase and rose 1.2%. That followed an unrevised 0.2% gain during October. The gains occurred despite the recent sharp drop in consumer sentiment. Excluding autos sales also [...]
November U.S. retail sales doubled expectations for a 0.6% increase and rose 1.2%. That followed an unrevised 0.2% gain during October. The gains occurred despite the recent sharp drop in consumer sentiment.
Excluding autos sales also beat expectations for a 0.7% gain and rose 1.8% after a 0.4% increase during the prior month.The strength was not all attributable to higher gasoline prices. Less gasoline, nonauto sales rose 1.1% following the meager 0.1% October uptick
Sales of discretionary items were notably firm last month. Apparel store sales surged 2.6% (6.6% y/y) but the prior month was revised down to a 0.5% decline. Furniture, home furnishings & appliance stores sales also surged 1.7% after the 0.3% rise during October. Prior months' slight declines were revised positive. Sales of electronics & appliances jumped 2.5% (5.0% y/y). Sales at general merchandise stores increased 0.9% (5.0% y/y) after a little revised 0.1% October uptick.
Even sales of building materials were strong during November and posted a 1.2% (0.8% y/y) increase, though the prior month was revised down to a 0.8% decline.
Sales of nonstore retailers (internet & catalogue) ballooned 1.9% (10.7% y/y) and the prior month's decline was revised to a 0.4% increase.
Motor vehicle & parts purchases fell 1.0% (+1.9% y/y). The decline was somewhat at odds with the 0.9% m/m rise in unit sales of light vehicles during November.
Gasoline service station sales jumped 6.8%, lifted by the 9.9% m/m rise in gasoline prices. The 3.1% rise during October was very much upwardly revised. So far this month gas prices are down 1.6% from the November average of $3.08 per gallon.
Corporate Access to External Financing from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
| November | October | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services | 1.2% | 0.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% |
| Excluding Autos | 1.8% | 0.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% |
| Less Gasoline | 1.1% | 0.1% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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