Global| Oct 14 2015U.S. Retail Sales Are Little Changed Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Overall retail sales including food services & drinking places during September notched 0.1% higher (-5.6% y/y) following no change in August, revised from 0.2%. A 0.2% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. [...]
Overall retail sales including food services & drinking places during September notched 0.1% higher (-5.6% y/y) following no change in August, revised from 0.2%. A 0.2% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales excluding autos fell 0.3% (+5.2% y/y) after a downwardly revised 0.1% dip. A 0.1% shortfall had been expected. During the last ten years, there has been a 92% correlation between the y/y change in retail sales and the change in real GDP.
Sales in the retail control group do not include autos, gasoline, building materials & food services. They align with the consumer spending estimates in the GDP accounts. Sales in this grouping slipped 0.1% (+3.4% y/y) after a 0.2% August rise. Gasoline service station sales fell 3.2% (-20.0% y/y), down for the third straight month.
Light motor vehicle sales increased 1.7% (8.7% y/y) after a 0.4% gain. The rise compared to a 2.0% increase in unit sales of cars and light trucks. Building materials & garden equipment sales fell 0.3% (+3.0% y/y) and added to a 1.3% August drop.
In other discretionary spending categories, clothing and accessory store sales improved 0.9% (5.0% y/y) after a 0.2% rise. Sporting goods, hobby shop, book & music store sales also increased 0.9% (6.4% y/y), reversing a 0.8% drop. Sales of furniture & home furnishings increased 0.6% (5.8% y/y) after a 0.4% decline. Showing weakness were general merchandise store sales as they eased 0.1% (+2.1% y/y) after a 0.3% rise. Sales at electronics & appliance stores fell 0.2% (-5.2% y/y) on the heels of a 0.1% uptick. Internet sales fell 0.2% (+5.2% y/y) after a similar in decline in August, but restaurant sales gained 0.7% (8.4% y/y) for a second consecutive month.
In the nondiscretionary spending categories, health & personal care store sales remained unchanged (3.5% y/y) following a 0.7% increase. Food & beverage store sales fell 0.3% (+3.0% y/y) and reversed a 0.4% increase.
The retail sales figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
The Fed's latest Beige Book covering regional economic conditions is available here.
| Retail Spending (%) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.8 | -5.6 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 5.0 |
| Excluding Autos | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.6 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 4.1 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline, Building Supplies & Food Services | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 3.6 |
| Retail Sales | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4.9 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 1.7 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 9.0 |
| Retail Less Autos | -0.5 | -0.2 | 0.6 | -0.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 3.9 |
| Gasoline Stations | -3.2 | -2.0 | -1.0 | -20.0 | -2.7 | -0.7 | 4.3 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 5.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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