Global| Apr 12 2011U.S. Petroleum Prices Surge
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Petroleum prices have nowhere to go but up. Last week, the pump price for regular gasoline jumped eleven cents to $3.79 per gallon, the highest level since September, 2008 and more-than-double the December, 2008 low of $1.61. [...]
Petroleum prices have nowhere to go but up. Last week, the pump price for regular gasoline jumped eleven cents to $3.79 per gallon, the highest level since September, 2008 and more-than-double the December, 2008 low of $1.61. Typically, pump prices decline this time of year due to lessened seasonal demand. To account for this pattern, Haver Analytics calculates seasonal factors. The adjusted gasoline price rose further last week to $3.73 per gallon. Yesterday, the spot market price for a gallon of regular gasoline slipped to $3.11 from an average $3.12 last week.
Crude oil prices also jumped last week to $109.75 for a barrel of WTI, also the highest since September, 2008. The price compares to the 2008 weekly low of $32.37. Yesterday prices held roughly steady at $109.92 per barrel. Brent crude oil prices, however, have been relatively strong rising to $126.36 yesterday from $122.04 last week.
Higher prices certainly can affect demand. Gasoline demand fell 1.2% in the latest week versus last year. The demand for residual fuel oil, used for heating, fell 0.5% and distillate demand rose 0.9% y/y. Inventories of crude oil and petroleum products slipped 0.4% year-to-year compared to 10.0% growth in the middle of 2009.
Finally, natural gas prices fell w/w to $4.16 per mmbtu. Yesterday, prices fell further to $4.06 and remained down from last year's early-January high of $6.50.
The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and the gasoline demand figures are in OILWKLY.
What Are the Implications of Rising Commodity Prices for Inflation and Monetary Policy? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago can be found here .
| Weekly Price | 4/11/11 | 4/4/11 | 3/28/11 | Y/Y% | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) | 3.79 | 3.68 | 3.60 | 32.6 | 2.78 | 2.35 | 3.25 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl.) | 109.75 | 105.54 | 104.52 | 27.7 | 79.51 | 61.39 | 100.16 |
| Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) | 4.16 | 4.29 | 4.14 | 4.6 | 4.40 | 3.95 | 8.88 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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