Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| May 31 2016

U.S. Personal Spending Strengthens; Income Remains Firm

Summary

Personal consumption expenditures during April jumped 1.0% (4.1% y/y) following no change in March, revised from 0.1%. The latest increase was the strongest since August 2009, and outpaced expectations for a 0.7% rise in the Action [...]


Personal consumption expenditures during April jumped 1.0% (4.1% y/y) following no change in March, revised from 0.1%. The latest increase was the strongest since August 2009, and outpaced expectations for a 0.7% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Spending on durable goods was notably firm, rising 2.3% (3.7% y/y). The gain was led by a 5.1% jump (-0.1% y/y) in motor vehicles spending. Recreational goods & vehicle spending increased 1.5% (7.8% y/y) and purchases of home furnishings & appliances gained 0.7% (3.8% y/y). Spending on nondurable goods also was firm as it increased 1.4% (2.3% y/). Gasoline purchases rose 7.6% (-8.0% y/y) with higher prices. The gain adjusted for prices was 0.4% (4.3% y/y). Clothing spending rose 0.9% (1.9% y/y). Services spending improved 0.6% (4.7% y/y), led by a 1.2% rise (3.7% y/y) in housing & utilities. Recreation spending firmed 0.9% (6.5% y/y) while transportation outlays rose 0.8% (6.6% y/y). Recreation services spending strengthened 0.9% (6.5% y/y).

Adjusted for price inflation, personal consumption expenditures increased 0.6% last month (3.0% y/y) after little change in March.

A firmer job market continues to boost income. Personal income increased an expected 0.4% during April (4.4% y/y) following an unrevised 0.4% rise. Wages & salaries increased 0.5% (5.2% y/y) following a 0.4 increase. In other income categories, proprietors income rebounded 0.6% (3.7% y/y) after two months of slight decline, and rental income rose 0.4% (7.1% y/y). Transfer payments increased 0.5% (3.9% y/y) as Social Security receipts jumped 0.9% (3.1% y/y). Medicare payments rose 0.4% (5.4% y/y). Unemployment insurance payments declined 2.5% (-5.7% y/y).

Disposable personal income increased 0.5% (4.4% y/y) following March's 0.4% rise. Adjusted for price increases, take-home pay rose 0.2% (3.3% y/y) following a 0.3% increase.

The personal savings rate fell to 5.4% from 5.9%, revised from 5.4%. The level of personal savings rose 10.2% y/y.

The chain-type price index rose 0.3%, and the y/y increase of 1.1% compared to a 0.3% rise during all of last year. The price index excluding food & energy improved 0.2% (1.6% y/y). The nondurable goods price index jumped 0.7% (-0.9% y/y), the largest increase since May of last year. The services price index rose 0.2% (2.2% y/y), the same as it did in the prior two months. The durable goods index nudged 0.1% higher (-1.7%).

The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics figure is in the AS1REPNA database.

Personal Income & Outlays (%) Apr Mar Feb Apr Y/Y 2015 2014 2013
Personal Income 0.4 0.4 0.1 4.4 4.5 4.4 1.1
  Wages & Salaries 0.5 0.4 0.0 5.2 4.8 5.1 2.7
Disposable Personal Income 0.5 0.4 0.1 4.4 3.8 4.2 -0.1
Personal Consumption Expenditures 1.0 0.0 0.2 4.1 3.4 4.2 3.1
Personal Saving Rate 5.4 5.9 5.5 5.1
(Apr. '15)
5.0 4.8 4.8
PCE Chain Price Index 0.3 0.1 -0.1 1.1 0.3 1.4 1.4
  Less Food & Energy 0.2 0.1 0.2 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.5
Real Disposable Income 0.2 0.3 0.2 3.3 3.4 2.7 -1.4
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 0.6 -0.0 0.3 3.0 3.1 2.7 1.7
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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