Global| Aug 01 2017U.S. Personal Income Stagnates and Spending Slows
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Personal income was unchanged during June (2.6% y/y) following a 0.3% May rise, revised from 0.4%. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Figures back to 2014 were revised and last year's increase [...]
Personal income was unchanged during June (2.6% y/y) following a 0.3% May rise, revised from 0.4%. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Figures back to 2014 were revised and last year's increase in income was lowered to 2.4% from 3.4%. The 5.0% increase in 2015 was increased from 4.4%. A 3.0% decline (+0.9% y/y) in dividend income was behind much of last month's weakness as it followed a 4.8% jump. Interest income also fell 0.9% (+2.8% y/y for a third consecutive month. Wages & salaries improved 0.4% (2.5% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick. Proprietors income eased 0.1% (+2.2% y/y) after a 0.1% rise. A 0.6% rise (5.5% y/y) in rental income followed a 0.4% increase. Transfer payments gained 0.2% (3.1% y/y) following two months of little change. Social Security payments increased 0.4% (3.7% y/y) following no change. Medicare income improved 0.2% (2.7% y/y) as it has on a monthly basis since January of last year.
Disposable income was unchanged (2.6% y/y) following a 0.4% rise. Adjusted for price changes, take-home pay eased 0.1% (+1.2% y/y) after a 0.5% jump.
Personal consumption expenditures improved 0.1% (3.8% y/y) following a 0.2% rise. A 0.1% uptick had been expected. Earlier figures were little revised. Adjusted for price change, personal spending held steady (2.4% y/y) after a 0.2% rise. Real durable goods purchases eased 0.1% (+5.3% y/y) after a 0.2% rise. Real nondurable goods spending fell 0.2% (+1.5% y/y) following a 0.4% gain. Real spending on services rose 0.1% (2.2% for a second month.
The personal savings rate eased to 3.8% and the downward revisions to income resulted in the May rate being lowered to 3.9% from 5.5%, along with downward revisions to earlier periods.
The chain-type price index held steady (1.4% y/y) for the second straight month. Excluding food & energy, prices increased 0.1% (1.5% y/y) also for a second consecutive month. Durable goods prices fell 0.2% (-2.0% y/y), down for the fifth straight month. Nondurable goods prices fell 0.2% (+0.5% y/y), after a 0.8% decline. Services prices rose 0.1% (2.3% y/y), following a 0.2% rise.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Personal Income & Outlays (%) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal Income | -0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 5.3 |
| Wages & Salaries | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| Disposable Personal Income | -0.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 5.1 |
| Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.4 |
| Personal Saving Rate | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 5.1 (Jun '16) |
4.9 | 6.1 | 5.7 |
| PCE Chain Price Index | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 1.5 |
| Less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Real Disposable Income | -0.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 4.2 | 3.6 |
| Real Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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